1 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar flirts 16 -months high after ADP delivers.
Greenback was seen hovering near 16-months high against other major currencies on Wednesday over the backdrop of optimistic private labor market data. The dollar index was quoted up 0.02% to 96.82 during Asian trading session. In the labor market front, ADP reported that the total number of private payrolls came in at 227,000 for the month of October, exceeding economist forecast to come in at only 189,000. The bullish results came into surprise for many as analysts were expecting a downbeat result due to prior month’s fallout from Hurricane Florence. However, gains on the dollar were limited as pound sterling rebounds from its session low amid hopes of reaching a Brexit deal with EU sooner than later. Market sentiment turned positive after a letter from Brexit minister Dominic Raab indicated that the UK and EU could reach consensus with regards to Brexit deal by November 21st. However, gains on the sterling were also limited as Raab admitted that there was no “concrete” date being set for the negotiation to take place for the time being. As such, pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.04% to 1.2771 as of writing.
On to the commodities market, crude oil price was down more than 11% on yesterday, its biggest monthly loss in nearly 2 years as the market was unconvinced with US oil embargo against Iran which could do little harm as expected from before. In addition, China signaled to execute further economic stimulus measure after recent economic data showed that the current policies are not yielding their prior expected results. Such bearish sentiment against the world’s largest oil importer has further fueled the selloff against the crude oil prices. As of writing, crude oil price mended its losses by 0.19% to $64.92 per barrel. Otherwise, gold price was up 0.21% to $1,217.13 a troy ounce following risk aversion within the market following bearish economic outlook against world largest economic powerhouse – China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
20:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 53.8 | 53.0 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE MPC Vote Cut (Nov) | 0 | 0 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE MPC Vote Hike (Nov) | 0 | 0 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Nov) | 9 | 9 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 215K | 213K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) | -1.0% | 1.0% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct) | 58.8 | 57.5 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 59.8 | 59.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the lower levels. MACD which has formed a negative divergence signal suggests the index to extend its losses in short-term, towards the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.60, 96.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1.2805. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the target of 1.2895.
Resistance level: 1.2895, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2805, 1.2690
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the top level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.1330, 1.1385
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1240
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 113.30. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the target at 112.60.
Resistance level: 112.95, 113.30
Support level: 112.60, 112.10
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the resistance level at 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7100, 0.7080
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 0.6520. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target at 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6575
Support level: 0.6520, 0.6500
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its lsoses after closing below 1.3155.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3155, 1.3115
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the target of 1.0095. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1.0055.
Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0140
Support level: 1.0055, 1.0025
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 64.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 65.45, 66.10
Support level: 64.80, 64.25
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after successfully breaking downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1220.25, 1229.05
Support level: 1213.15, 1206.05