1 November 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar retraces as China data delivers.
The dollar index was traded lower amid China release of Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which came in higher than expected at 50.1 compared to its previous data of 50.0. The data indicates a strong manufacturing sector and growing economy for China. Investors took the chance to flee from dollar market ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data tomorrow and enter the Asian market boosted by positive sentiment. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar was largely bought following positive data from China, further decreasing the demand for dollar. Australian’s Trade Balance data for the month of September had a reading of 3.017B compared to expected reading of 1.700B which further increasing the demand for both Australian and New Zealand dollar. As of writing, dollar index fell by 0.28% to 96.30 while pair of AUD/USD and NZD/USD was up by 0.72% and 1.00% to 0.7125 and 0.6580 respectively.
For the commodities market, crude oil price edges higher by 0.17% to 64.95 after falling to a its lowest level since 20th August amid worsening sentiment. Recent reports stated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was increasing oil production for the month of October, while US President Donald Trump stated that supply of petroleum was sufficient to offset the decrease a supply from Iran sanctions. Both news indicates that Iran sanction on 4th November will not bring much of an impact towards the oil market. In other news, gold price recovered part of its losses yesterday after investors exit from safe-haven assets, edging higher by 0.33% to 1218.45.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
20:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 53.8 | 53.0 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE MPC Vote Cut (Nov) | 0 | 0 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE MPC Vote Hike (Nov) | 0 | 0 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Nov) | 9 | 9 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 215K | 213K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) | -1.0% | 1.0% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct) | 58.8 | 57.5 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 59.8 | 59.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 96.60. MACD which display bearish signal and the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.60, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2855. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2855, 1.2905
Support level: 1.2800, 1.2740
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1335. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1385.
Resistance level: 1.1385, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1300
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 112.75. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 113.20, 113.50
Support level: 112.75, 112.40
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7105. MACD which display bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7145.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7175
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7080
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6586. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6586, 0.6610
Support level: 0.6565, 0.6535
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3175. MACD which display bearish momentum and the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3115.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3205
Support level: 1.3155, 1.3065
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1.0065. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.0030.
Resistance level: 1.0065, 1.0100
Support level: 1.0030, 0.9980
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 64.80. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 66.10, 67.50
Support level: 64.80, 63.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1220.40. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1220.40, 1225.05
Support level: 1215.10, 1207.10