5 November 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar firmed despite upbeat data.
Greenback managed to hold its ground against a basket of major currencies after rebound from the one-week low following strong Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings been released last Friday. According to United States Department of Labor, Nonfarm Payrolls data came in at 250K, significantly higher than the economist forecast of 193K while Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings data successfully achieved the forecasted target respectively at 3.7% and 3.1%. The data showed that US job growth rebounded significantly in October and wages recorded their largest annual gains in 9.5 years. However, gains on the US dollar remains limited as investors remained their focus on trade related tensions between US and China. As of writing, the dollar index notched down 0.04% to 96.25. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD climbed 0.15% to 1.2985 during Asian trading session. The Sterling-bull were boosted by the news regarding 95 percent of Britain’s withdrawal agreement was settled and negotiations were on going. However, there are some significant hurdles still remain in the Brexit negotiation process, UK’s Telegraph newspaper reported.
In the commodities market, crude oil notched down 0.25% to $62.65 per barrel amid US sanctions against Iran’s fuel exports was softened by waivers which allow major buyers to still import Iran crude oil at least temporarily. Next, gold plunged 0.07% to $1231.80 per troy ounce amid Dollar’s demand rebound.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:10 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Oct) | 53.9 | 53.3 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct) | 62.4 | – | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 61.6 | 59.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 96.30. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.30, 96.55
Support level: 96.00, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3015. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2960.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2875
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1375. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1375.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1375, 1.1335
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 113.25. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the support level at 113.25.
Resistance level: 113.25, 113.55
Support level: 112.65, 112.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.7185. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.7185.
Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7250
Support level: 0.7185, 0.7140
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.6635. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.6635.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6710
Support level: 0.6635, 0.6610
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.3110. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.3110.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3130
Support level: 1.3080, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.0045. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.0045.
Resistance level: 1.0045, 1.0090
Support level: 1.0025, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 62.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 63.25.
Resistance level: 63.25, 64.20
Support level: 62.55, 61.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded in sideway channel following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1230.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1230.25.
Resistance level: 1237.40, 1247.50
Support level: 1230.25, 1221.45
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: November 5 – 9
| Monday, November 5 |
Data GBP – Services PMI (Oct) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Events CAD – BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
|
| Tuesday, November 6 |
Data AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) EUR – German Services PMI (Oct) EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Oct) EUR – Services PMI (Oct) USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)
Events AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, November 7 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock NZD – Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3) EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) CAD – Ivey PMI (Oct) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, November 8 |
Data NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision USD – Initial Jobless Claims CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
Events NZD – Rate Statement NZD – RBNZ Press Conference EUR – ECB Economic Bulletin EUR – EU Economic Forecasts
|
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Friday, November 9
|
Data USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision CNY – CPI (YoY) (Oct) CNY – PPI (YoY) (Oct) GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events USD – FOMC Statement
|