14 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Is Brexit deal right around the corner?
Greenback retraced from its prior high on Tuesday following a surge in pound sterling after EU and Britain agreed to a draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement. UK Prime Minister is expected to hold a Cabinet meeting today to present the drafted Brexit agreement among her senior ministers. In addition, a summit with the EU could occur as soon as November 25th, signaling for the end of Brexit risks which lingers upon Britain for the past two years. However, skepticism still lingers among investors as it may face a stiff challenge in the Cabinet. May does not have a majority in the parliament and she faces opposition from Labor Party as well as from within her Conservative Party. On the other hand, US dollar was met with cynicism among market participants after economists warned that the gap between US interest rates and the rest of the world will likely narrow starting next year. As such, investors may turn their attention towards other assets which may follow Federal Reserve’s part in tightening their monetary policy amid rising inflationary pressure. As of writing, US dollar was down 0.59% to 96.93 while pair of GBP/USD was up 0.34% to 1.3022.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.89% to $55.72 per barrel as it rebounds from the lower level. On yesterday, the commodity price fell more than 7% after OPEC monthly report shows that the cartel and Russian crude production continues to climb in October, offsetting losses from US lead sanction against Iran. Otherwise, gold price mends its losses by 0.07% to $1,202.92 a troy ounce following weaker dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
07:00 (15th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.5% | -0.3% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Oct) | 2.4% | 2.5% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 05:30 (15th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 7.830M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 96.60.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.60, 96.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the target of 1.3015. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2895
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD extended gains following prior breakout from the downward trendline. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1330, 1.1385
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1240
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the MA line.
Resistance level: 114.20, 114.55
Support level: 113.85, 113.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7170. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 0.7170.
Resistance level: 0.7250, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7220, 0.7200
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 0.6770.
Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6805
Support level: 0.6735, 0.6700
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level near 1.3210.
Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3210, 1.3155
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.0055. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0140
Support level: 1.0055, 1.0025
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 57.00, 59.45
Support level: 55.35, 53.90
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded flat and currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains after a breakout occur at the trendline.
Resistance level: 1206.00, 1215.95
Support level: 1198.00, 1190.00