17 December 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar hovered ahead of Fed meeting.
Dollar was traded flat around 96.85 after hitting 19 months high last Friday as investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s meeting which will be held on this Wednesday. In the meeting, Federal Reserve will focus on analyzing U.S economic outlook and decide the future trajectory of U.S monetary policy. Prior to the meeting, market participant is expecting the U.S central bank to raise their interest rate by 25 basis point. However, recent comment by Fed chairman Jerome Powell has been treated as dovish signal by the market after he commented that the current interest rates were near the “neutral” range, the level where they neither stimulate nor impede the economy. As of writing, the dollar index dipped 0.03% to 96.80. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD down 0.01% to 1.2580 during Asian trading session after UK Prime Minister Theresa May accused former Prime Minister Tony Blair on proposals to undergo a second Brexit referendum which considered as a breach of trust.
In the commodities market, crude oil surged 0.31% to $51.60 per barrel after U.S drilling activity fell to its lowest level in about two months as US drillers cut four oil rigs in the week to December 14. Besides, gold dipped 0.05% to $1237.60 a troy ounce amid investors shifted their portfolio towards riskier asset such as Euro and Sterling pound.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 2.0% | 2.0% | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Dec) | 10 | 6 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec) | 23.30 | 20.10 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index traded lower following prior gap down while currently testing the support level at 96.85. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after the candle successfully close below the support level at 96.85.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.30
Support level: 96.85, 96.60
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2535. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2610, 1.2675
Support level: 1.2535, 1.2485
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1275. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1320.
Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1340
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1225
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher in the sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level at 113.50. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 113.50.
Resistance level: 113.50, 113.70
Support level: 113.20, 112.70
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.7180. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.7180.
Resistance level: 0.7180, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7115
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher in sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6790. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 0.6810.
Resistance level: 0.6810, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6790, 0.6750
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1.3365. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a retracement from or breakout above the resistance level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3415, 1.3445
Support level: 1.3365, 1.3330
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 0.9955. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0005.
Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0045
Support level: 0.9955, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher in the sideway channel following prior rebound near the support level at 50.35. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as a breakout below or rebound from the support level.
Resistance level: 52.80, 54.05
Support level: 50.35, 49.20
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level at 1235.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1239.10.
Resistance level: 1239.10, 1242.05
Support level: 1235.50, 1228.50
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: December 17 – 21
| Monday, December 17 |
Data EUR – CPI (YoY) (Nov)
Events N/A
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| Tuesday, December 18 |
Data EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index USD – Building Permits (Nov)
Events AUD – Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes
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| Wednesday, December 19 |
Data GBP – CPI (YoY) (Nov) CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) USD – Existing Home Sales (Nov) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – API Weekly Cure Oil Stock
Events N/A
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| Thursday, December 20 |
Data USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) AUD – Employment Change (Nov) JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
Events USD – FOMC Economic Projections USD – FOMC Statement USD – FOMC Press Conference JPY – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement JPY – BoJ Press Conference
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Friday, December 21
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Data GBP – GDP (YoY) (Q3) GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov) USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) CAD – GDP (MoM) (Oct) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
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