18 December 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback relinquished following bleak data.
US dollar droops against its other major rivals on Monday following downbeat economic data ahead of US Federal Reserve interest rate decision due this coming Thursday. As of writing, the dollar index was down by 0.32%, last quoted around 96.54 during Asian trading session. According to New York Federal Reserve, its Empire State Manufacturing Index fell by 12.4 points to 10.9, its lowest level in 19 months. Broad weakness was apparent across the index following substantial reduction in China’s businesses and manufacturing outlook. Analysts blamed the weaker index reading to be stemmed from US trade tension with China and a strong US dollar for the past few months. The downbeat report came days ahead of a widely expected interest rate hike from the Fed although market participants will largely focus on the central bank’s expectation and projection for future rate hike instead. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD extended gains by 0.05% to 1.1348 following positive development in Italy’s budget. According to reports, Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has struck a deal with populist leaders to submit a revised budget proposal to the European Commission. The report suggests the untangling of prior budget crisis as Italy refuses to change their stance upon proposed high government spending.
In the commodities market, crude oil price plunged sharply by 2.88% to $49.57 per barrel. The commodity received tremendous selling pressure after reports showed that the inventories at the storage hub in Oklahoma rose by more than 1 million barrels last week. The increase signals for an imminent oversupply in the US while investor’s sentiment remained pessimistic due to global economic growth and crude demand concerns. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.02% to $1,246.35 a troy ounce as greenback falters due to bearish economic data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 102.0 | 101.8 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Building Permits (Nov) | 1.265M | 1.259M | – |
| 05:30
(19th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -10.180M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 96.45. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 96.60, 96.80
Support level: 96.45, 96.25
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2770
Support level: 1.2575, 1.2500
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper level of downward channel. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1410
Support level: 1.1310, 1.1265
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 113.70. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 112.60.
Resistance level: 112.95, 113.30
Support level: 112.60, 112.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.7170. MACD which has formed a positive divergence signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7265
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7105
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6780. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above 1.3430.
Resistance level: 1.3430, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3380, 1.3315
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains following a successful closure above 0.9930.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9955
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the strong support at 50.25. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after breaking the support near 49.50.
Resistance level: 50.25, 52.00
Support level: 49.50, 47.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1237.25. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1253.00.
Resistance level: 1253.00, 1263.20
Support level: 1242.10, 1237.25