21 December 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar struggles ahead of holiday season.
US dollar struggles near one-month low during mid-Asian session following subdued economic outlook which has evoked higher risk aversion in the financial market. The greenback suffered from a slump following the release of Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index from yesterday which accompanies a set of economic releases that signaled for an economic downturn. Moreover, US yield curve continues to flatten near 11-years low, signifying lower market confidence towards the long-run as long-term bond yield slumped below short-term bond yields. Adding up on overall bearish sentiment in the market is the imminent government shutdown which has sparked higher risk-off mood among investors. According to reports, US President Donald Trump threatened to veto a spending bill unless it includes funds to build a wall near the border of Mexico. The impasses brew higher risk of federal government shutdown which will begin on Saturday. On the other hand, pound sterling continues to trade within a tight range following ongoing Brexit risk in the UK. On yesterday, Bank of England kept their interest rates unchanged while commenting that current Brexit uncertainty has “Intensified considerably”. As of writing, the dollar index ticks up 0.03% to 95.81 while pairing of GBP/USD retraced by 0.05% to 1.2657.
Over to the commodities market, crude oil price was traded flat near $46.52 per barrel as market participants anticipates the release of US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count to gauge regional oil drilling activity. On the other hand, gold price hovers near 5-months high as financial market lurched into risk-off mode.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.6% | 0.6% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 3.5% | 3.5% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Oct) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) | 97.5 | 97.6 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov) | 0.6% | 0.3% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Nov) | 0.5% | 0.3% | – |
| 02:00
(22nd) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 873 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 95.60. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggest the index to be extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.35
Support level: 95.60, 95.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top. Due to the lack of signal from Stochastic Oscillator and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2770
Support level: 1.2575, 1.2500
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.1490. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1450.
Resistance level: 1.1490, 1.1520
Support level: 1.1450, 1.1410
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 111.60, 111.20
Support level: 110.70, 110.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat within the range of 0.7140 and 0.7105. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, before extending its losses based on the current downward trendline.
Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7170
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7060
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of expanding channel. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6780.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6650
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a small upward channel. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in mid-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3615
Support level: 1.3430, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below the support level of 0.9870. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and momentum suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.9820.
Resistance level: 0.9870, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9820, 0.9770
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from a lower level. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 47.50, 49.50
Support level: 45.40, 43.70
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1263.20. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1263.20, 1270.00
Support level: 1253.00, 1242.10