18 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling reigns, dollar dethroned.
Greenback was little changed on Thursday as most of its upbeat economic data was offset by a strong rise in pound sterling. In the US, Philadelphia Fed reported that its manufacturing index rose to 17 in the month of January, exceeding economist forecast of only 9.7. In addition, initial jobless claims hit its lowest level in 5 weeks, despite government shutdown which has furloughed more than 800,000 federal workers. However, greenback failed to extend any substantial recovery following a change in sentiment within the market. In the UK, Prime Minister Theresa May seeks cross-party consensus upon Brexit conundrum after her government won a vote of confidence last Wednesday. Traders continues to buy into sterling as they speculate UK might be able to secure a withdrawal deal while avoiding to leave the EU without a trade deal. However, uncertainty continues to loom over Brexit as Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has refused to enter into a cross-party talk, demanding May to rule out a no-deal Brexit. As of writing, dollar index was quoted up 0.03% to 95.67 while GBP/USD tacks up 0.05% to 1.2974.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.33% to $52.34 per barrel. Oil prices rebounds from its prior low as US considers to lift China trade tariffs, a move which could reduce the trade tension between both nations. On the other hand, gold price tumbled 0.09% to $1,290.79 a troy ounce following resilient US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
22:05 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
00:00 (19th) USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 1.4% | -0.8% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) | -0.2% | – | – |
| 22:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) | 0.6% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) | 98.3 | 97.0 | – |
| 02:00
(19th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 873 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 95.75. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.10
Support level: 95.30, 95.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its prior high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3030, 1.3110
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2910
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the support of 1.1380. MACD which has formed a bullish divergence signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.1420.
Resistance level: 1.1420, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1380, 1.1330
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 108.95. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards after closing above 109.35.
Resistance level: 109.35, 109.90
Support level: 108.95, 108.25
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards 0.7180.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7255
Support level: 0.7180, 0.7145
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further downwards after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further downwards, towards the support at 1.3260.
Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3260, 1.3230
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 0.9950. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9990
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9835
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to extend its gains after successfully closing above the level of 52.75.
Resistance level: 52.75, 54.10
Support level: 51.50, 50.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00
Support level: 1287.20, 1284.35