15 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Will UK “Brexit”?
Greenback edged lower on Monday while market participants fixates towards the imminent parliamentary vote upon Brexit deal draft. UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is widely expected to be rejected within the UK parliament. However, traders continue to buy-into the currency as a no-deal Brexit probability has significantly reduced. Currently, the market is speculating for a few possible outcomes which includes an extended stalemate, second referendum or even cancelling the Brexit all together. Over to the United States, US dollar failed to make any substantial recovery as market sentiment remains sour over dovish stance taken by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell said last week that the central bank would remain “patient” with regards to monetary policy tightening as long as domestic inflation hovers at a stable range. Thus, investor’s will focus on the release of Producer Price Index later tonight to gauge its economic pace and current wholesale inflationary levels. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD was up 0.10% to 1.2876 while the dollar index depreciates by 0.09% to 95.13.
Otherwise, crude oil price extended losses by 0.10% to $50.70 per barrel this morning. Oil prices took a step back after China’s economic report cited possibility for a lower trade growth in 2019 due to global trade uncertainty, which may also reduce its demand for crude oil. On the other hand, gold price was traded flat at $1,291.26 a troy ounce the traders await further market signals.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
00:30 (16th) USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
02:00 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
02:00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
03:00 USD UK Parliament Vote on Brexit Deal
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – Trade Balance (Nov) | 14.0B | 13.7B | – |
| 21:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan) | 10.90 | 10.75 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Dec) | 0.1% | -0.1% | – |
| 05:30 (16th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -6.270M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the lower level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after breaking the lower level of the channel.
Resistance level: 95.25, 95.50
Support level: 95.00, 94.60
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.2860. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.2910.
Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2960
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the target of 1.1480. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance of 1.1480.
Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1520
Support level: 1.1450, 1.1410
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 108.05. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further up in short-term, towards 108.40.
Resistance level: 108.40, 108.70
Support level: 108.05, 107.75
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7220.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7255
Support level: 0.7180, 0.7145
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance of 0.6840.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat and currently testing near the support of 1.3270. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below 1.3270.
Resistance level: 1.3270, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3170
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9790. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9790, 0.9765
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 50.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher and advance towards 51.50.
Resistance level: 51.50, 52.75
Support level: 50.50, 49.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the lower levels. Stochastic Oscillator which has formed a retracement signal suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the bottom level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00
Support level: 1284.35, 1280.00