4 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar defy bears, trade talk in focus.
Greenback rose sharply last Friday despite downbeat US economic data as market sentiment turned positive following upbeat outlook upon world economies and higher prospect towards the achievement of a trade deal between US and China. The dollar index edged up 0.29% to 96.32 as of writing. The dollar remained resilient in wake of bearish manufacturing, inflation and consumption data that did little to suppress US economic progression. Economists suspects the bearish data may be due to governmental shutdown that dampens domestic market sentiment in terms of spending and goods demand. Likewise, positive development in trade talks between US and China added up bullish support on the greenback as a resolution in trade war may brighten up the outlook of global economic growth. In addition, the greenback was further boosted following a slip in pound sterling as investors book profits following the currency’s sharp gain last week amid a possible delay in Brexit and diminishing risk of a no-deal exit. Pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.14% to 1.3229 during early Asian trading session.
As for commodities, crude oil price plunged more than 3% last Friday to $55.77 per barrel. Oil prices settled lower last week following continuous increase US oil production which has risen more than 2 million bpd last year to a total of 12.1 million bpd. On the other hand, gold price plunged more than 1% last Friday to $1,289.55 a troy ounce following a sharp rebound on the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Feb) | 50.6 | 50.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 96.65, 97.00
Support level: 96.00, 95.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3170, 1.3010
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1.1360.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 112.20.
Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80
Support level: 111.45, 111.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 0.7105. MACD which illustrate bearish bias suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7100, 0.7170
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 0.6820. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6780.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6735
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior closure above the target of 1.3280. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3325.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9975, 0.9950
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while recently formed a pin-bar candlestick formation. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the direction of 55.60.
Resistance level: 56.45, 57.45
Support level: 55.60, 55.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1294.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to advance further down, after successfully closing below the target of 1294.00.
Resistance level: 1305.60, 1315.45
Support level: 1294.00, 1280.20