5 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Euro dips, ECB doves around the corner?
US dollar extended its gains against other major peers as euro fails to hold its gains while slumping to two-weeks low. The dollar index rose 0.11% to 94.48 while pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.01% to 1.1336 as of writing. Earlier yesterday, Sentix Investor Confidence in the EU zone improved from 3.7% in February to -2.2% in March while wholesale Inflation for 12 months through January topped expectation. However, euro failed to take advantage of the upbeat data as investors are currently trimming their bullish bets ahead of this week’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting. Likewise, recent economic data from the EU zone remains skewed towards recessive, further dialing down market’s expectation upon ECB which may adopt a “wait-and-see” approach and refrain from tightening their policy further this year. In addition, economist is expecting the central bank to reiterate the short-term weakness in economic data and may signal to stimulate the economy when needed. Nevertheless, there is possibility for ECB to dial down their economic projection in tandem with the recent diminished economic momentum.
In the commodities market, crude oil price tumbled 0.12% to $56.16 per barrel. Oil prices was traded in a choppy fashion while investors await further market signal from the release of crude oil inventories data from EIA this coming Wednesday. Otherwise, gold price extended its losses on yesterday by 0.73% to $1,286.92 a troy ounce following large buyback on the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
23:35 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 15:30 | CHF – CPI (MoM) (Feb) | -0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Services PMI (Feb) | 55.1 | 55.1 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Feb) | 51.4 | 51.4 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Services PMI (Feb) | 52.3 | 52.3 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Feb) | 50.1 | 49.9 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Feb) | 57.8 | – | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 56.7 | 57.3 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Dec) | 657K | 600K | – |
| 23:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Feb) | 54.7 | – | – |
| 05:30
(6th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -4.200M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up, towards the direction of 96.65.
Resistance level: 96.65, 97.00
Support level: 96.00, 95.50
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses following a successful closure below 1.3170.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3170, 1.3010
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.1310.
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1400
Support level: 1.1310, 1.1280
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80
Support level: 111.45, 111.00
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7055
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retracement signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6800, 0.6780
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 1.3325. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.0005. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.9975.
Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9975, 0.9950
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term, towards the lower level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 56.45, 57.45
Support level: 55.60, 55.15
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded in a downtrend following prior closure below 1294.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1280.20.
Resistance level: 1294.00, 1305.60
Support level: 1280.20, 1267.30