7 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Severe blow to Trump as deficit widens to decade high.
US dollar was traded in a tight range against other major currencies on yesterday after US private sector jobs creation slowed down while trade deficit widened amid diminishing exports. As of writing, the dollar index was traded flat at 96.76. For the month of February, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change came in at 183,000 jobs, missing economists’ expectation for a reading up to 189,000 jobs. However, previous month’s reading was received an upward revision from 213,000 to 300,000. In terms of US trade condition, its deficit widened to $59.80 billion for the month of December after exports fell for third consecutive month to $205.10 billion. Current trade deficit which stood at its highest level in a decade delivers a severe blow to Trump’s administration despite efforts to revive American manufacturing sector and reduce dependency on imported goods. However, economists’ postulate that the widening gap for the month of December was partly due to a rush of import goods ahead of potential additional tariff increase from the administration. Likewise, the widening was also driven by stronger dollar and US economy, while US Federal Reserve whom continues to tighten their monetary setting sparked higher demand for the greenback. Against other currencies, pair of GBP/USD was up 0.03% to 1.3173 while USD/JPY slipped 0.04% to 111.70.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticked down 0.03% to $56.15 per barrel. Oil prices remains under pressure following a large increase in US crude inventories while market anxiety towards possible global recession continues to limit any substantial gains. On the other hand, gold price was traded flat around $1,286.45 a troy ounce as traders await the highly anticipated release of Nonfarm Payrolls report due tomorrow night.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.2% | 1.6% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 225K | 225K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) | 1.2% | 1.6% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 96.85, 97.00
Support level: 96.65, 96.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3100. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, toward the direction of 1.3235.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3170, 1.3100
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1310, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1230
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down in short-term, towards the direction of 111.45.
Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80
Support level: 111.45, 111.00
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7070
Support level: 0.7015, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6720
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD extended its gains following prior closure above the resistance level at 1.3435. MACD which illustrate increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3485.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3370
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the strong support at 1.0040. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the level of 1.0040.
Resistance level: 1.0070, 1.0095
Support level: 1.0040, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level of descending triangle. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 56.45, 57.45
Support level: 55.60, 55.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near the support level of 1280.20. MACD which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1294.00, 1305.60
Support level: 1280.20, 1267.30