11 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Jobs blunder limits greenback ascend.
US dollar was traded lower on last Friday after data shows that the US economy added far fewer workers than expected for the month of February. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.08% to 97.26 during Asian trading session. According to US Labor Department, Nonfarm Payrolls for last month came in at only 20,000 jobs, far lesser than the consensus forecast for an increase of 180,000. A plunge in last month’s job gains was largely due to weather-related disruption. However, losses on the greenback remains limited after Unemployment Rate ticked down by 0.1% to 3.9%, indicating further tightening in the US labor market. Likewise, Average Hourly Earnings accelerated by 0.4%, higher than economists’ forecast for an increase of only 0.3%. Overall, greenback was sold off rather mildly as overall trend in employment is resilient enough to keep the unemployment rate low in long-term. In the UK front, pair of GBP/USD opened lower by 0.24% to 1.2984. Pound sterling was sold off earlier this morning due to risk aversion as UK Parliament members will pass their verdict on PM Theresa May’s Brexit plan on 12th March which may be used to enforce Brexit on 29th March. However, CNBC reported on Sunday that Brexit could be reversed if lawmakers reject May’s exit deal and it may further jeopardize May’s position that adds further weakness on the GBP. If the proposal was rejected, it would open the door for voting of “No Deal Exit” on 13th March. Likewise, a rejection to exit EU without any deal will lead to a vote to either delay Brexit deadline which is set on 29th March.
In the commodities front, crude oil price rose 0.34% to $56.16 per barrel. The commodity received higher demand after reports show that Saudi Arabia produced 10.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, well below its assigned quota of 10.31 bpd. In addition, Saudi Arabia energy minister Khalid al-Falih said last month that March production level could fall to 9.8 million bpd which may provide further bullishness towards the commodity’s price. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.09% to $1,297.19 a troy ounce following a rebound of US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
07:00 (12th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) | -0.4% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -1.8% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -1.2% | 0.0% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper levels. MACD which shows diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to experience technical correction in short-term.
Resistance level: 97.80, 99.10
Support level: 95.95, 95.00
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses following a successful close below the MA line.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2880, 1.2790
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support at 1.1220.
Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1220, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.
Resistance level: 111.45, 112.20
Support level: 111.00, 110.50
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.7030. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 0.7030.
Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7090
Support level: 0.7030, 0.6995
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6820.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6790, 0.6745
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards 1.3435.
Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3485
Support level: 1.3370, 1.3300
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.0095.
Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0120
Support level: 1.0045, 0.9995
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to extend further up after closing above 56.45.
Resistance level: 56.45, 57.45
Support level: 55.60, 55.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1305.60, 1315.45
Support level: 1294.00, 1280.20