15 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Cautious dollar-bulls as jobless claims rise.
Greenback halted its bearish decline after posting four consecutive days of losses as pound sterling enters into consolidation phase. Sterling bulls took a pause as investors digests the highly expected outcome with regards to recent Brexit developments. Earlier this morning, UK lawmakers have passed the motion to delay Article 50/Brexit deadline of 29th March by with a majority votes of 412 versus 202. With strong backing from the Parliament, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is required to seek for an approval from the EU for an extension. Prior, European Commission stated that a request of extension would require unanimous agreement from all 27 member of states in the EU. Likewise, UK would have to provide valid justification for the extension while EU would consider such request with high priority in ensuring the function of EU institutions and taking account for duration of such extension. Leaders of EU is expected to meet next Thursday and Friday. However, gains on the US dollar were limited following the release of bearish data from the region. According US Department of Labor, Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 229,000 individuals, missing economists’ forecast for a rise up to 225,000. A slight appreciation in jobless claims suggested that the labor market is growing slowly, stoking fears towards forthcoming recession amid global economic slowdown. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.17% to 96.68 while pair of GBP/USD was traded flat around 1.3248.
As for commodities, crude oil price tacks up 0.09% to $58.52 per barrel. Oil prices extended its gains for fourth consecutive day following bullish data from the United States which shows a large draw in oil inventories. Otherwise, gold price slid by 0.02% to $1,296.28 a troy ounce following diminishing risks in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
17:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:00 | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.5% | 1.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar) | 8.80 | 10.00 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -1.35 | 0.4% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Jan) | 7.335M | 7.310M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) | 93.8 | 95.3 | – |
| 01:00
(16th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 834 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower following a close below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 96.75, 97.05
Support level: 96.45, 96.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 1.3240. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3140, 1.3170
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support at 1.1300. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 1.1340.
Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1400
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 112.20.
Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80
Support level: 111.45, 111.00
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.7050. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7075.
Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7100
Support level: 0.7050, 0.7025
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6885
Support level: 0.6820, 0.6790
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3300.
Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3370
Support level: 1.3300, 1.3270
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 1.0040. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 0.9995.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070
Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 59.65.
Resistance level: 59.65, 63.70
Support level: 55.60, 50.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to advance further down after closing below the support of 1294.00.
Resistance level: 1305.60, 1315.45
Support level: 1294.00, 1280.20