12 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling sky high over last-minute Brexit talks.
US dollar extended its bearishness against other major currencies while investors digest mixed economic data from the region. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.37% to 97.07 during early Asian trading session. According to US Commerce Department, retail sales rose by 0.2% for the month of January while December’s reading received a downward revision to -1.6%. Although the latest data beats economist expectation to remain flat at 0.0%, the downward revision has portrayed three consecutive months of downtrend, raising higher concern over shrinkage in consumer spending. Moving forward, investors will be placing their focus upon US inflation data due later tonight while broader risk appetite in the market will be vigilant towards the meaningful vote upon PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal. In the UK front, pair of GBP/USD skyrocketed 0.71% to 1.3244 following last-minute Brexit talks between UK and EU. According to reports, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the European Union President Jean-Claude Juncker had made a “very important” offer towards the UK in order to break the deadlock in Brexit talks. Majority of market participants poured into pound sterling over speculation that both EU and UK may agree over Irish backstop that may provide some support towards May’s Brexit deal during parliamentary vote.
As for commodities, crude oil price tacks up 0.21% to $56.85 per barrel. Oil price extended its gains after Saudi Arabia announced that OPEC-led supply cuts will unlikely to end before June. Quoting Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, he said that it would be too early to change the pact while they will continue to take a proactive approach to rebalance the global supply and demand. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.03% to $1,292.93 a troy ounce following diminishing risks in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
03:00 (13th) GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) (Jan) | -0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) | -0.7% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 04:30
(13th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 7.290M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.80, 99.10
Support level: 95.95, 95.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD extended gains while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3240. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after successfully closing above 1.3240.
Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3170, 1.3100
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support of 1.1220. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1460
Support level: 1.1220, 1.1125
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above 111.45.
Resistance level: 111.45, 112.20
Support level: 111.00, 110.50
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7100
Support level: 0.7050, 0.7025
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 0.6840. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6885
Support level: 0.6820, 0.6790
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3370.
Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3485
Support level: 1.3370, 1.3300
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical corrections.
Resistance level: 1.0120, 1.0180
Support level: 1.0095, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to be traded higher, towards the direction of 57.45.
Resistance level: 57.45, 58.55
Support level: 56.45, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begin to form a death cross signal suggests its prices to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1294.00, 1305.60
Support level: 1280.20, 1267.30