26 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback flattens, recession risks brews.
Greenback was tangled within a tight range while market participants continues to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach. Most traders continue to scrutinize further developments in the United States with regards to economic performance and trade negotiation in order to gain further signal on US dollar’s near-term direction. Prior, US Federal Reserve have stunned the financial market by threatening to halt any further interest rate hikes if the US economy head towards a possible recession. In addition, the narrowing of yield spread between 2-years and 10-years Treasury has sparked further recession fears as long-term yields diminishes and hovers lower than short-term yields. On the other hand, New Zealand dollar received higher demand in the FX market as market participant digests bullish economic data from the region. For the month of February, New Zealand recorded a lower than expected deficit with only -$6,620 million versus forecast of -$6,675 million. However, gains on the kiwi currency were limited by growing uncertainty in US-China trade talks which is bound to kickstart in Beijing later this week. As of writing, the dollar index ticked down 0.05% to 95.96 while pair of NZD/USD rose 0.10% to 0.6914.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.20% to $58.95 per barrel. Oil prices rebounds from its lower level following ongoing supply cut from OPEC while US sanction against Iran and Venezuela helps to curb global oil production levels. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.10% to $1,320.64 a troy ounce following a shift in market demand towards riskier assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Feb) | 1.317M | 1.320M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) | 131.4 | 132.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 96.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.65.
Resistance level: 96.25, 96.80
Support level: 95.65, 95.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the support level 1.3180. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.3250 or below the support level 1.3180 is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3250, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3095
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1295. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1360.
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1295, 1.1260
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat following recent rebound from low levels. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.35, 111.10
Support level: 109.60, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7130. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7050
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 0.6905. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6905, 0.6875
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from high level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3290
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing near the support level 0.9915. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 0.9965.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 60.20.
Resistance level: 60.20, 63.10
Support level: 57.90, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1323.10. MACD which display bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1315.80.
Resistance level: 1323.10, 1331.95
Support level: 1315.80, 1308.10