4 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback extend losses after weak ADP data release.
U.S dollar measuring its basket of six major currency pairs have fell on Wednesday as weak payrolls data underlined worries over the strength of the economy. According to the official data released by Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), U.S. private sector have posted its lowest job growth in 18 months, with the reading of only 129K, lower than economic forecast with the reading of 170K. The weak data could support the Federal Reserve to extending a pause on rate hikes, as the central bank remains concerned about slowing domestic growth. At the same time, ISM Manufacturing PMI data also record lower than expected results with only 56.1 against market forecast of 56.1, adding further confirmation on economic slowdown in the US. As of writing, dollar index slips 0.28% to 97.09. On the other hand, GBP manage to hold to its ground and remain steady despite Service PMI came disappointing results. According to Markit, UK service sector have weaken as the data came in at 48.9, weaker than expected reading of 50.0. However, the sterling manage to secure its gains on high level as market investors remain positive following U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May offered talks to opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to ensure an orderly and negotiated departure from the European Union, rather than give in to lawmakers on her own side who are ready to accept the consequences of a disorderly Brexit without transitional arrangements which showing signs of a possible breakthrough on Brexit. GBPUSD skyrocketed 0.30% to 1.3167 at the time of writing.
As for commodities, crude oil price have gave up some of its gains and fell 0.28% to $62.45 per barrel following a surprise increase in its inventories. According to recent reports from EIA, crude oil stocks have increased 7.2 million barrels in the week ending March 29 which is surprisingly weak compared to analysts’ estimate for a draw of 425K barrels, thus dragging the sentiment with the initial reaction to the data. However, market remains optimistic on long term and remain in focus on further catalyst that could affect the oil market. Next, gold price edge higher 0.05% to $1292.20 a troy ounce at the time of writing following a weak dollar affected by disappointing ADP data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19.30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 211K | 216K | – |
| 22.00 | CAD – Ivey PMI | 50.6 | 51.1 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 96.85. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 96.20.
Resistance level: 96.85, 97.15
Support level: 96.20, 95.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3180. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short-term towards the support level 1.3065.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3065, 1.2960
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1215. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1275.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1325
Support level: 1.1215, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 111.40. MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.10
Support level: 111.40, 110.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7120. MACD which display bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6770. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6815.
Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6725
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3295. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3460
Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9965. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0025
Support level: 0.9965, 0.9910
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 65.50. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 60.20.
Resistance level: 62.50, 64.10
Support level: 60.20, 58.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1287.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1298.05.
Resistance level: 1298.05, 1308.10
Support level: 1287.00, 1280.80