2 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
RBA rate cut ahead?
Australian dollar was traded lower during mid-Asian trading session following the release of interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As widely expected, RBA has kept their interest rate unchanged at 1.50% for the 29th consecutive meeting. While the central bank quoted various downside risk on the economy such as US-China trade war and easing global economic growth, they remain optimistic with regards to Australian labor market. RBA quoted that the strong labor market in terms of hiring has led to a pick-up in wage growth which would lift inflationary pressure gradually in long-term. However, they emphasized to remain neutral with regards to monetary policy and would undertake appropriate measure to support sustainable growth and achieving inflation target. Such signal has increased the prospect for a rate cut in the future as recent economic data from Australia portrays some signs of deteriorating economic momentum. On the other hand, US dollar rebounds from its lower level since yesterday following bullish data from the manufacturing sector. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD depreciates by 0.40% to 0.7082 while the dollar index rose 0.13% to 96.87.
On the other hand, crude oil price rose 0.03% to $61.59 per barrel. Oil prices rose to fresh high on Tuesday after Washington is considering to enact more sanction against Iran while a key Venezuelan export terminal halted their operations recently. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.05% to $1,287.12 a troy ounce following a sharp rebound in US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Construction PMI | 49.5 | 49.8 | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Durable Goods Order | -0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 4.30 (3rd) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.930M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 96.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.20.
Resistance level: 97.20, 97.60
Support level: 96.80, 96.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3065. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1.3065.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3215
Support level: 1.3065, 1.2965
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1220. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1180.
Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1120
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 111.40. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 110.85.
Resistance level: 111.40, 112.00
Support level: 110.85, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7120. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6775. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.6775.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6860
Support level: 0.6775, 0.6730
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3345. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.3345.
Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3375
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9985. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0020.
Resistance level: 1.0020, 1.0070
Support level: 0.9985, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 61.25. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term toward the support level 61.25.
Resistance level: 62.60, 64.10
Support level: 61.25, 60.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1292.30. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to undergo technical correction toward the resistance level at 1292.30.
Resistance level: 1292.30, 1300.25
Support level: 1283.70, 1277.05