17 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar rose despite weak industrial production.
Greenback measuring its value against a basket of six major currency pairs inched higher 0.08% to 96.72 as of writing despite recent weak release of U.S Industrial Production data. According to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, production in U.S factories and manufacturing have slumped to -0.1%, weaker than market expectation with the reading of 0.2% which added to expectations of FED to stay on pause for policy rate plans. However, sentiment remains positive following the rise of U.S equity and treasury yields help supporting the greenback currently. Investors will continue to focus on upcoming developments and data that could affect the U.S market conditions to determine further direction. On the other hand, New Zealand Kiwi suffered huge loss and plummeted 0.83% to 0.6703 at the time of writing following disappointing CPI. According to the official data release by Statistics New Zealand, the CPI figure came in 0.1%, lagging behind the forecasted reading of 0.3% which further strengthening the expectations of RBNZ’s rate cut plan in May. Besides that, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr also stated in his interview that the New Zealand Kiwi is in “happy space” and possibility Q1 inflation undershooting forecasts already factored into bank’s dovish bias.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.12% to $64.39 per barrel as of writing following latest supply data. According to reports from American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 3.1 million for the week ended April 12. At the same time, tensions in Libya and failing Venezuelan and Iranian exports due to U.S sanctions continue to boosting the appeal of the commodity. However, as recent reports on Moscow to end oil cut deal with OPEC, market will shift their focus towards the development as the ditch will cause heavy disruption in the oil market. On the other hand, gold price extend its losses by 0.08% $1276.10 a troy ounce at the time of writing following investor returned to risk-on mode due to recovering dollar and Venezuela heavy dump on the yellow metal.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21.00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.5% | 0.3% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – PPI Input (MoM) (Mar) | 0.6% | 0.3% | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.4% | 1.4% | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 1.5% | 1.9% | – |
| 22.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 7.029M | 1.711M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 96.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest index to extend its gains towards the resistance level 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.40, 96.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the narrowing triangle. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3145
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2965
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1280. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1.1340.
Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1230
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 112.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 112.40.
Resistance level: 112.40, 113.00
Support level: 112.00, 111.45
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7180. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7155.
Resistance level: 0.7180, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7130
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6705. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing its candle below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6795
Support level: 0.6705, 0.6625
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3355. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal and the formation death cross suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower back towards the support level 1.3355.
Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3440
Support level: 1.3355, 1.3295
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.0070. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower towards the support level 1.0070.
Resistance level: 1.0105, 1.0160
Support level: 1.0070, 1.0030
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level at 63.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 64.65.
Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00
Support level: 63.70, 62.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1274.10. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1283.80, 1295.65
Support level: 1274.10, 1268.00