30 April 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Aussie dragged by China missed data, dollar remains pressured.
Dollar index continue to fell against its basket of six major currency pairs as market remains pressured by weak consumption figures. Overall, market is currently digesting disappointing data from US after personal consumption expenditures (PCE) (which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measurement) fell to 1.6%, missing economist expectation for a rise of 1.7%. As the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is expected to be held this week, investors’ attention will be centered towards the meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference where they expected to result in a decision to leave its key federal funds rate unchanged. Dollar index extend its losses by 0.05% to 97.50 as of writing. On the other hand, AUD/USD suffered huge losses and fell 0.18% to 0.7043 at the time of writing following downbeat China PMI. According to Markit Economics, China factory activity have slumped to 50.2, weaker than market expectation with the expected reading of 51.0. The below-forecasted data have illustrate that China’s economy have barely expanded in April, hinting economic slowdown, therefore dragging the Aussie which is China’s largest trading partner.
In the commodities market, crude oil price have dip 0.25% to $63.37 per barrel at the time of writing as market flipped between gains following rampant uncertainty in the commodity. Following recent announcement on Iran waiver by Washington, investors are trying to assess how OPEC and its allies will respond when U.S. waivers that allowed buyers to continue importing Iranian oil expire on May 2. At the same time, a stutter in China’s factory activity also weighed on the demand of crude oil. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.29% to $1283.50 a troy ounce as of writing following dollar weakness which dragged by poor consumption data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY Holiday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:00 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (May) | 10.4 | 10.3 | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Apr) | -7K | -6K | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – GDP (YoY) | 1.1% | 1.1% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 7.8% | 7.8% | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.4% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Feb) | 0.3% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) | 124.1 | 126.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -1.0% | 1.1% | – |
| 04:30
(1st) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 6.900M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 97.60. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest index to extend its losses towards the support level 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25
Support level: 97.00, 96.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2945. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2945, 1.3015
Support level: 1.2845, 1.2770
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1185. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1145, 1.1100
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remained traded in a sideway channel following prior retracement from the top-level of the channel at 111.75. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the bottom-level of the channel at 111.35.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20
Support level: 111.35, 110.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7050. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7090
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6930
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6670. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 0.6630.
Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6630, 0.6580
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3435. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3485.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat near the support level 1.0190. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.0265, 1.0310
Support level: 1.0190, 1.0100
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 63.15. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 64.65.
Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00
Support level: 63.15, 61.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound form the support level 1277.30. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1285.80.
Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65
Support level: 1277.30, 1268.50