1 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback loses its shine.
Greenback extended its decline for second consecutive days following signs of cooling inflation in the United States which has increased the chances for Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.34%, last seen around 97.18. Prior, Fed preferred inflation measure – the PCE and Core PCE Price Index shows substantial depreciation in current inflationary pressure. During its last meeting, the Fed was skewed towards dovish for the year following concerns over global growth and weak inflation while reiterates to adopt wait-and-see approach and act if necessary. For the time being, investors will be remained fixated upon Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting which would conclude past midnight today. According to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the market is currently pricing in at more than 60% chance for an interest cut during December. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.03% to 1.3034. Sterling received further bullish support following positive developments with regards to Brexit after both Conservative and Labour Party was reportedly progressing “constructively”.
As for commodities, crude oil price ticked down 0.05% to $63.44 per barrel. Oil futures received substantial bearish pressure after American Petroleum Institute reported a swell in US crude inventories by 6.81 million barrels last week. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.04% to $1,282.94 a troy ounce following diminishing risks in the market which lead to a shift towards other assets in UK and Canada.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day Germany Labour Day
All Day Hong Kong Labour Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (2nd) USD FOMC Statement
02:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
04:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 55.1 | 53.2 | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) | 129K | 181K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 55.3 | 55.0 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.479M | 1.485M | – |
| 02:00 (2nd) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60
Support level: 96.85, 95.90
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3050. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3120
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2900
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior close above 1.1200. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of target at 1.1250.
Resistance level: 1.1250, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1200, 1.1155
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 111.25. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 111.50, 112.10
Support level: 111.25, 111.00
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a sideways channel in between 0.7035 and 0.7070. Due to the lack of signal from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7115
Support level: 0.7035, 0.6990
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6630.
Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6695
Support level: 0.6630, 0.6580
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior close below the support of 1.3400. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3370.
Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3370, 1.3340
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a downward channel while recently closed below 1.0190. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term towards the direction of 1.0170.
Resistance level: 1.0190, 1.0205
Support level: 1.0170, 1.0130
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior close below 63.70. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the direction of 63.15.
Resistance level: 63.70, 64.65
Support level: 63.15, 61.60
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher, towards the direction of 1285.80.
Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65
Support level: 1275.30, 1267.00