3 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Could NFP lift greenback to its grandeur?
Greenback extended its post-Federal Reserve meeting recovery despite mixed economic data from the region on yesterday. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.15% to 97.55. According to US Commerce Department, factory goods orders for the month of March came in at 1.9%, beating economist expectation for a rise of 1.0%. However, US Department of Labor shows that the initial jobless claims for last week remained unchanged at 230,000, missing economist forecast for a decline of 10,000 individuals to 220,000. Overall, the mixed data did little to hamper greenback’s recovery after US government bond yields extended its rebound due to lower chances for a rate cut in the near-term. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, he reiterates that the current path of monetary policy remains appropriate and they will adopt a “wait and see” approach prior to tweaking their policy. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD fell 0.03% to 1.3032 during Asian trading session. Bank of England remained cautious with regards to UK’s economic outlook due to Brexit risks and stands ready to act whenever it is needed. Likewise, BoE downplayed the prospects for an increased pace of rate hikes as they expect near-term inflation to steady below their target of 2%.
As for commodities, crude oil price recovered some losses by 0.18% to $61.61 per barrel. Oil price slumped more than 4% on yesterday while hitting one-month lows after data from Energy Information Administration shows that crude inventories were up nearly 30 million barrels in the last 5 weeks. Stocks has been building up since chemical plant fire in Houston port which delays the oil exports. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.01% to $1,270.60 a troy ounce due to substantial recovery of US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day Japan Constitution Day
All Day China Labour Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Apr) | 48.9 | 50.4 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 1.4% | 1.6% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) | 196K | 181K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 3.8% | 3.8% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 56.1 | 57.2 | – |
| 01:00
(4th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 805 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 96.85. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 97.65.
Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60
Support level: 96.85, 95.90
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3120
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2900
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.1200. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.1155.
Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1250
Support level: 1.1155, 1.1100
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 111.35.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.00
Support level: 111.35, 111.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.6990. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6990.
Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7070
Support level: 0.6990, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support level of 0.6630. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6580.
Resistance level: 0.6630, 0.6670
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3485.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance of 1.0205. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above the resistance of 1.0205.
Resistance level: 1.0205, 1.0320
Support level: 1.0135, 1.0095
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 61.80. MACD which begins to form a golden cross suggests its price to extend further up after closing above 61.80.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.00
Support level: 60.85, 59.75
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 1267.00. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1275.30, 1285.80
Support level: 1267.00, 1253.25