3 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Market cheers for greenback ahead of NFP.
Dollar index which measure against a basket six major currency pairs have extend its gains and look to end the week with a firmer tone as market scaled back their expectations on U.S rate cuts. Despite recent mixed economic data, market remains optimistic after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell down played recent slowdown in inflation and saw no reason to cut interest rates. At the same time, the greenback was also supported by rising US treasury yield. Currently, market participants is waiting for the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll data where the data could would trigger a huge momentum in the market. Dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.55 as of writing. On the other hand, Aussie have fell to new fresh session lows after slipping 0.06% to 0.6997 at the time of writing. Such selloff was evoked as metal commodities price such as copper and crude oil being heavily pressured by global risk and slowing demand. As Australia’s largest export mostly depend on these natural commodities, price weakness in the metals dragged market sentiment towards the Aussie dollar. Besides that, recent weakness in inflation figures has also provide further reason for Aussie to remain in bearish momentum.
As for commodities, crude oil price extended its losses from prior session due to increasing oil output from the United States. U.S oil production have reached a record high of 12.3 million bpd last week and broke through 3 million bpd for the first time this year. Besides that, news on Russia would call the end on OPEC supply cut deal continues to drag its price further. Crude oil price fell 0.12% to $61.45 per barrel as of writing. On the other hand, gold price remained pressured and fell 0.03% to $1271.55 a troy ounce as of writing amid resilient US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day Japan Constitution Day
All Day China Labour Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Apr) | 48.9 | 50.4 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 1.4% | 1.6% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) | 196K | 181K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 3.8% | 3.8% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 56.1 | 57.2 | – |
| 01:00
(4th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 805 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 97.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25
Support level: 97.00, 96.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher-levels. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3015.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2945
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after breaking below previous support level at 1.1185. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1145.
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1145, 1.1100
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat near the 20-MA line (green). Due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 111.75 or below the support level 111.35 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20
Support level: 111.35, 110.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6990. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 0.7050.
Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7090
Support level: 0.6990, 0.6930
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from low-levels. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6635.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6670
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3435. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 1.3435.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.0190. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.0190, 1.0265
Support level: 1.0100, 0.9980
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 61.85. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 61.85, 63.15
Support level: 60.15, 58.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1266.35. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1277.30.
Resistance level: 1277.30, 1285.80
Support level: 1266.35, 1253.25
Dollar index which measure against a basket six major currency pairs have extend its gains and look to end the week with a firmer tone as market scaled back their expectations on U.S rate cuts. Despite recent mixed economic data, market remains optimistic after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell down played recent slowdown in inflation and saw no reason to cut interest rates. At the same time, the greenback was also supported by rising US treasury yield. Currently, market participants is waiting for the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll data where the data could would trigger a huge momentum in the market. Dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.55 as of writing. On the other hand, Aussie have fell to new fresh session lows after slipping 0.06% to 0.6997 at the time of writing. Such selloff was evoked as metal commodities price such as copper and crude oil being heavily pressured by global risk and slowing demand. As Australia’s largest export mostly depend on these natural commodities, price weakness in the metals dragged market sentiment towards the Aussie dollar. Besides that, recent weakness in inflation figures has also provide further reason for Aussie to remain in bearish momentum.
As for commodities, crude oil price extended its losses from prior session due to increasing oil output from the United States. U.S oil production have reached a record high of 12.3 million bpd last week and broke through 3 million bpd for the first time this year. Besides that, news on Russia would call the end on OPEC supply cut deal continues to drag its price further. Crude oil price fell 0.12% to $61.45 per barrel as of writing. On the other hand, gold price remained pressured and fell 0.03% to $1271.55 a troy ounce as of writing amid resilient US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day Japan Constitution Day
All Day China Labour Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Apr) | 48.9 | 50.4 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 1.4% | 1.6% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) | 196K | 181K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 3.8% | 3.8% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 56.1 | 57.2 | – |
| 01:00
(4th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 805 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 97.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25
Support level: 97.00, 96.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher-levels. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3015.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2945
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after breaking below previous support level at 1.1185. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1145.
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1145, 1.1100
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat near the 20-MA line (green). Due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 111.75 or below the support level 111.35 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20
Support level: 111.35, 110.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6990. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 0.7050.
Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7090
Support level: 0.6990, 0.6930
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from low-levels. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6635.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6670
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3435. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 1.3435.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.0190. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.0190, 1.0265
Support level: 1.0100, 0.9980
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 61.85. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 61.85, 63.15
Support level: 60.15, 58.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1266.35. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1277.30.
Resistance level: 1277.30, 1285.80
Support level: 1266.35, 1253.25