7 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Aussie recovers ahead of RBA meeting, dollar flat.
Dollar index remain traded flat in a range against a basket of six major currency rivals as the uncertainty in trade tension between U.S and China still dominate the sentiment among investors. Recently U.S President Donald Trump have threatened that he will levy tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imported products and could also more than double to 25% from 10% due to impatient and slow progress in trade deals between two countries, which stoke fear among investors. However, market and analyst starting the prospect of Trump following through with his threat as China remain persistent and have prepared for further discussions in the U.S on Wednesday despite the threat. Market currently remain in focused on the trade talk between the two economies where a positive development could send the market reeling, Dollar index edge lower 0.02% to 97.22 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUD/USD recovers 0.06% to 0.6993 at the time of writing as market currently eyed for the RBA policy meeting. Following with upcoming policy meeting, market observers are expected that the Royal Bank of Australia will more likely to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis point considering the latest disappointing data that support for the move. As the Aussie sentiment currently dominated by revived fears of trade war, market will now focus on the meeting decision to determine further direction.
As for commodities, crude oil price retraced 0.63% to $62.19 per barrel after a strong rebound due to reports of planned Iran strike on U.S interest. According to recent report, Israel’s Channel 13 diplomatic correspondent Barak Ravid stated that Israel has passed information to the U.S. about an alleged Iranian plot to attack U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf. The rising Gulf tensions could largely create disruption for the output, therefore sending the market into a demand frenzy for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price holding its grounds and edge up 0.17% to $1287.67 a troy ounce at the time of writing as dollar remain pressured from trade fears.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12.30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) | 7.087M | 7.350M | – |
| 22.00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Apr) | 54.3 | 51.5 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the 60-MA line (red). However, due to lack of momentum and signal from the MACD, a breakout above or below the resistance and support level is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25
Support level: 97.00, 96.35
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3105. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2945
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1185. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1240.
Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305
Support level: 1.1185, 1.1145
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 110.95. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 110.30.
Resistance level: 110.95, 111.35
Support level: 110.30, 109.75
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6990. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level 0.6990.
Resistance level: 0.6990, 0.7050
Support level: 0.6930, 0.6855
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6580.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6670
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6510
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3435. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.0190. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.0100.
Resistance level: 1.0190, 1.0265
Support level: 1.0100, 0.9980
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 61.85. However, MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 63.15.
Resistance level: 63.15, 64.65
Support level: 61.85, 60.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the 60-MA line (red). However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 1277.30.
Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65
Support level: 1277.30, 1266.35