10 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
FX Market sour amid trade war tension.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs remained pressured amid deadline for additional tariff while edging lower by 0.01% to 97.12. US President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% on Friday if no deal was achieved in their negotiations, right after the accusation of China for breaking promises. Besides that, dollar was further pressured by the Producer Price Index (PPI) data which fell from previous of 0.6% to 0.2%, further reaffirming Federal Reserve “wait and see” approach as investors wait for today’s CPI data to gauge US inflationary level. Investors seek protection from the riskier assets into safe-haven Yen, sending the pair of USD/JPY to its lowest level in 3 months. In other news, pair of GBP/USD remained traded flat at 1.3010 while investors focus on Brexit talks between May’s Conservative Party and opposition Labour Party which are expected to result in a deadlock. Market participants will place their focus on UK’s GDP data later today to further gauge the movement of the pair.
As for commodities, crude oil price rebounded by 1.17% to $62.27 per barrel. Recent sentiment for the crude oil market remains cloudy amid trade war tensions and geopolitical risks. Fears of additional tariff as well as ongoing fights in Libya and Russia’s production halt kept the commodity traded sideways. On the other hand, gold price edged higher by 0.05% to $1284.45 a troy ounce amid increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.2% | 0.5% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.0% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) | 0.3% | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Apr) | -7.2K | 10.0K | – |
| 01:00 (11th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 807 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 97.05. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal could suggest the dollar to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level 97.05.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.00
Support level: 97.05, 96.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.3000. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3100.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3190
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2940
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1215. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1245.
Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1215, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 109.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.35, 110.90
Support level: 109.70, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6995. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6995, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6900
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6580. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6645.
Resistance level: 0.6645, 0.6680
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6515
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3475. MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3430.
Resistance level: 1.3475, 1.3520
Support level: 1.3430, 1.3390
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.0160. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain after it breaks above the resistance level 1.0160.
Resistance level: 1.0160, 1.0200
Support level: 1.0115, 1.0080
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 61.75. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 62.85.
Resistance level: 62.85, 64.55
Support level: 61.75, 60.35
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1287.00. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1287.00 or below the support level 1278.10 is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40
Support level: 1279.10, 1269.40