13 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
US inflation slows, rate cut imminent?
US dollar extended its last week’s losses after its inflation data missed economist expectation last Friday, fueling higher concern for an economic slowdown and possible rate cut ahead. As of writing, the dollar index slumped 0.04% to 97.06 during early Asian trading session. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics, its Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of April rose by 0.1%, slightly lower than economist forecast of a reading up to 0.2%. A minor slowdown in inflationary pressure evokes a change in market sentiment as it may provide US Federal Reserve with more reasons to cut its interest rate within the year 2019. Additionally, greenback’s appeal was extensively being overshadowed after Canadian jobs report shows better-than-expected results when compared to the US. For the month of April, Employment Change shows a monstrous gain in job creation with 106.5K, exceeding forecast for only 10.0K. However, pair of USD/CAD managed to limit its losses as ongoing US-China trade war hinders any substantial gains on the Canadian currency. As such, pair of USD/CAD ticks down 0.01% to 1.3430 during Monday morning.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.55% to $61.37 per barrel. Oil futures received extensive bearish pressure as recent rift in trade war between US and China casts a gloomy outlook upon global economic growth and demand for oil. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.14% to $1,287.78 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.
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Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 96.85. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.30, 97.65
Support level: 96.85, 96.40
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.3000. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher, towards the direction of 1.3040.
Resistance level: 1.3040, 1.3080
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2975
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1250, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1200, 1.1155
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 109.40.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.55
Support level: 109.40, 108.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6970.
Resistance level: 0.6990, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6970, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance at 0.6600. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.6570.
Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6630
Support level: 0.6570, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, toward sthe direction of 1.3490.
Resistance level: 1.3490, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 1.0110. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.0070.
Resistance level: 1.0110, 1.0155
Support level: 1.0070, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the direction of 60.85.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.00
Support level: 60.85, 59.75
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the top level of descending channel. While MACD has illustrate a bullish signal, a break above is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1295.65, 1302.50
Support level: 1285.80, 1275.30