16 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Fed warns on policy easing.
US dollar was traded flat on yesterday following mixed signals in the market from Federal Reserve officials and regional economic data. Overnight, US President Donald Trump called on Feds to “match” their policy against China in order to offset economic damage from his new tariffs. However, several Fed officials warned that lower interest rate may lead to asset price bubbles, induce financial instability and lead to recession. In a separate appearance, New York Fed President John Williams warned that tariffs may eventually push up inflation, suggesting the probability for an interest cut may diminish. Nevertheless, gains on the greenback were limited after Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales came in lower than expected with 0.1% and -0.2% respectively. A lower count in sales in terms of retail may indicate a more sluggish consumer spending ahead, which in return reflects to lower growth rate. Otherwise, pair of GBP/USD collapse further, down by 0.03% to 1.2845. Sterling hurdle into deep losses after Labor Party warned that cross-party talks are on the verge of being called off, leading to greater uncertainty with regards to Brexit.
On the other hand, crude oil price rose 0.11% to $62.16 per barrel. Oil futures extended gains as fears over supply shortage from Saudi Arabia attack offset a rise in US crude inventories. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat around $1,297.01 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback which balance off higher risks in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – Trade Balance (Mar) | 17.9B | 19.9B | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Apr) | 1.288M | 1.290M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 228K | 220K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) | 8.5 | 10.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.65, 97.95
Support level: 97.30, 96.85
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior close below 1.2900. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction at 1.2790.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.3015
Support level: 1.2790, 1.2700
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher, towards the direction of 1.1220.
Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1250
Support level: 1.1200, 1.1155
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support at 109.40. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 109.40.
Resistance level: 109.80, 110.10
Support level: 109.40, 109.15
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the bottom level of the descending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.
Resistance level: 0.6955, 0.7020
Support level: 0.6915, 0.6860
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance near 0.6570. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6570, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.3490.
Resistance level: 1.3490, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which forms a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0110
Support level: 1.0055, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 62.40, 63.00
Support level: 61.50, 60.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower after closing below 1295.65.
Resistance level: 1302.50, 1311.40
Support level: 1295.65, 1285.80