20 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar remains buoyant as trade war escalates.
Dollar index which measure its value against a basket of six major currency pairs was traded higher by 0.04% to 97.80 amid trade war tensions. Recent developments in trade war escalated to tit-for-tat tariffs with China retaliating by imposing tariff on $60 billion US goods effective on 1st June. Although US President Donald Trump stated that a deal is still achievable, market participants now worry that China will not compromise with US demand for a deal which favors the US more. Recent reports also stated that Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is unwilling to meet Trump for further trade negotiations during the G20 summit next month. The current tariff imposed on China goods is benefiting the US, causing investors to place their investment in stronger dollar. In other news, pair of GBP/USD was traded higher by 0.14% to 1.2733 as of writing. The British pound is still being pressured by Brexit impasse which ended with failure of cross-party talks. Further pressuring the pound was Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit draft which was reported bringing no significant changes compared to the previous draft. May’s Brexit plan will undergo a 4th consecutive vote during 3rd June while she struggles to persuade UK lawmakers in approving the proposal.
As for commodities, crude oil price skyrocketed by 1.15% to $63.58 per barrel after OPEC signals for continuing production cuts. Recent reports from Saudi Arab stated that OPEC might further production cut ‘gently’ while remaining responsive towards global oil demand. On the other hand, gold price fell by 0.16% to $1275.70 per troy ounce following stronger dollar.
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Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 97.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 97.60.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.50
Support level: 97.60, 97.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2720. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2795.
Resistance level: 1.2795, 1.2865
Support level: 1.2720, 1.2620
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1.1180. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term back to the current resistance level 1.1180.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1215
Support level: 1.1145, 1.1115
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 110.35. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 109.70.
Resistance level: 110.35, 110.90
Support level: 109.70, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 0.6910. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6965.
Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.6995
Support level: 0.6910, 0.6855
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6515. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6580.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6645
Support level: 0.6515, 0.6460
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1.3405. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level 1.3415.
Resistance level: 1.3475, 1.3520
Support level: 1.3415, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.0125. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breaks above the resistance level 1.0125.
Resistance level: 1.0125, 1.0160
Support level: 1.0045, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 62.80. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 64.55.
Resistance level: 64.55, 66.30
Support level: 62.80, 61.20
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1279.10. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1269.40.
Resistance level: 1279.10, 1289.40
Support level: 1269.40, 1263.45