23 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Brexit going nowhere?
Pound sterling extended its selloff on Wednesday following renewed political chaos within the UK government that surrounds Prime Minister Theresa May. Prior, May proposed a revised version of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to the Parliament which includes an option to call for a second referendum. Some members from her own Conservative and Opposition party revolts over the new version, placing pressure upon her to resign as soon as possible. In addition, a senior cabinet minister resigns from the government on yesterday, citing May’s failure to bring out a substantial Brexit agreement which will take Britain out of the European Union efficiently. On the other hand, greenback extended its gains for third consecutive day as market participants digests a rather neutral stance portrayed by Federal Reserve in the latest meeting minutes. Several Fed officials backs Jerome Powell’s view that recent dip in inflation is likely to be transitory and they should adopt a rather “patient” approach to their policy. The minutes reinforced prior message from Powell whereby the current interest rate level is appropriate for the time being and there is no strong reason for any changes to be made. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD slumped 0.03% to 1.2664 while the dollar index ticks up 0.02% to 97.90.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.08% to $61.23 per barrel. Yesterday, oil prices nosedived more than 3% after EIA crude oil inventories showed a surprise build for last week at around 5 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat at around $1,274.03 a troy ounce as market sentiment remains mixed for the time being.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) | 44.4 | 44.8 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 99.2 | 99.2 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 212K | 215K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Apr) | 692K | 675K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend further up after closing above 97.95.
Resistance level: 97.95, 98.60
Support level: 97.65, 97.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.2700. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.2630.
Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2790
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.1150. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1150.
Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1220
Support level: 1.1150, 1.1100
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY extended its losses after breaking the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 110.10.
Resistance level: 110.55, 111.00
Support level: 110.10, 109.80
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 0.6885. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6830.
Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6915
Support level: 0.6830, 0.6840
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the bottom level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.6500, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6450, 0.6420
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 1.1370. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3435.
Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3490
Support level: 1.3400, 1.3370
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.0080. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after closing above 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.0110, 1.0155
Support level: 1.0080, 1.0055
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support of 61.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 62.50, 63.70
Support level: 61.00, 59.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1275.30. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1269.10.
Resistance level: 1275.30, 1280.00
Support level: 1269.10, 1253.30