04 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar plunges as investors flee to safe-haven, euro gains.
Dollar index which measures its value against a basket of six major currency pairs continues to plunge back to its 97.00 value amid poor manufacturing figure. According to the Institute of Supply Management, US ISM Manufacturing PMI slumped to a two-and-a-half-year low of 52.1, missing economists’ forecast of 53.0 and indicating a slowdown in business activity in the manufacturing sector. Dollar was previously pressured by trade tensions between US and China as well as Mexico, with the released of disappointing data further worsen dollar’s sentiment, causing investors to flee into safe-haven gold and Yen. However, ISM Manufacturing Employment data provided a higher than expected reading, signaling increasing employment activities which might provide a bullish Nonfarm Payroll data this week. At the moment, investors will place their focus on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech to wait for further signals in the market. In other news, the euro was able to hold its gains against the dollar yesterday following Eurozone and Germany’s manufacturing data which hit their expectations, lifting worries of further slowdown in Eurozone’s economy. As of writing, dollar index inched higher by 0.03% to 97.04 while pair of EUR/USD was up by 0.09% to 1.1250.
As for commodities market, crude oil price managed to rebound by 0.59% to $53.12 per barrel after plunging more than 15% last week. According to Saudi Arabia energy minister Khalid al-Falih, he signaled that they will keep the oil market stabilized, hinting that OPEC will most probably further their production cut plan along with non-OPEC members during the meeting in Vienna at the end of June. Lastly, gold price further its gains by 0.17% to $1326.75 a troy ounce amid weaker dollar which led to investors’ risk aversion as they flee into the safe-haven gold.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
21:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun) | 1.50% | 1.25% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (May) | 50.5 | 50.5 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) | 1.7% | 1.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Apr) | 1.9% | -0.9% | – |
| 05:30 (5th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.265M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 97.00. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 97.40, 97.70
Support level: 97.00, 96.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2610. MACD which display bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2680.
Resistance level: 1.2680, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2550
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1245. MACD which display ongoing bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breaks above the resistance level 1.1245.
Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1215, 1.1175
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 107.85. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 107.85.
Resistance level: 108.50, 109.15
Support level: 107.85, 107.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6965. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6995, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6600. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6570.
Resistance level: 0.6645, 0.6680
Support level: 0.6570, 0.6545
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3490. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3415.
Resistance level: 1.3490, 1.3535
Support level: 1.3415, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.9910. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.9965.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9910, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat in a sideway channel after it breaks below the previous support level 53.75. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to be traded higher towards the current resistance level 53.75.
Resistance level: 53.75, 54.90
Support level: 52.05, 50.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1323.10. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 1323.10.
Resistance level: 1331.95, 1345.55
Support level: 1323.10, 1310.70