4 June 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD rises despite rate cut.
Australian dollar received higher bidding at noon despite fresh rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As expected by the market, RBA has announced to cut their interest rate by 25 basis points from 1.50% to 1.25% during its policy meeting today. RBA cited that the downside risks towards their economy continues to rise over the backdrop of trade tension in between US and China. However, market participants gave a rather bullish outlook towards the Australian dollar despite its latest rate cut as RBA avoids from portraying pessimism in its statement while citing further upside in terms of inflation progression for mid-term. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.05% to 0.6979. On the other hand, pair of USD/JPY extended its losses by 0.14% to 107.91 during mid-Asian trading session. Traders in the market begins to short US dollar following higher expectation towards Federal Reserve in cutting their interest rates for the near-term. On yesterday, 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since September 2017 after St Louis Fed President James Bullard signaled that a rate cut “may be warranted soon” due to higher economic risks due to trade tension and weak US inflation.
In terms of commodity, crude oil price rebounds by 0.63% to $53.12 per barrel. Oil futures received higher demand after Saudi Arabia express their confidence that they may extend the oil cut agreement into the second half of the year. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.02% to $1,352.02 a troy ounce following higher risk aversion in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (May) | 50.5 | 50.5 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) | 1.7% | 1.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Apr) | 1.9% | -0.9% | – |
| 05:30 (5th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.265M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 97.00. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.40, 97.60
Support level: 97.00, 96.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2610. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2695.
Resistance level: 1.2695, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1245. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320
Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 107.85. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction toward the resistance level at 108.20 in short term.
Resistance level: 108.20, 108.80
Support level: 107.85, 107.45
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6960. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6995.
Resistance level: 0.6995, 0.7025
Support level: 0.6960, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6600. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 0.6570.
Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6630
Support level: 0.6570, 0.6550
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3450. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3415.
Resistance level: 1.3450, 1.3475
Support level: 1.3415, 1.3390
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9930. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.9930.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9965
Support level: 0.9895, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 54.30. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 54.30.
Resistance level: 54.30, 55.90
Support level: 51.50, 50.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1323.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1315.00.
Resistance level: 1323.00, 1331.35
Support level: 1315.00, 1308.90