06 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar fell amid poor ADP data.
Dollar index have slip against its basket of six major currency pairs following the release on ADP data on Wednesday. According to the official data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), US private sector have added the fewest jobs since 2010 with the reading of only 27k, weaker than market expectation with the reading of 180k increase. The ADP data are highly correlated to the more comprehensive payroll report which is the NFP on Friday. Market is currently waiting for subsequent employment data such as Challenger Job Cuts which could provide hints on U.S labor market condition. Dollar index fell 0.05% to 97.25 as of writing. Meanwhile, USDJPY extend losses by 0.11% to 108.35 at the time of writing as market sentiment turned sour after U.S and Mexico unable to reach a deal. According to recent reports, Mexican officials have met with their U.S. counterparts for negotiations in Washington on Wednesday which aimed at averting U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods next week, but both countries are unable to struck a deal. US President Donald Trump has stated that “not nearly enough” progress is being made in negotiations with Mexico to avert his threatened tariffs. U.S President Donald Trump also vowed import duties of 5% will take effect on Monday unless Mexico stems the flow of migrants to the US. The escalating tension have further diminishing investors’ confidence thus boosting more demand for the safe-haven Yen.
As for commodities market, crude oil price continue to extend its decline and plummeted 0.10% to $51.70 per barrel following the latest surprise in U.S crude stockpiles. According to EIA, crude oil inventories have increased once again by 6.77 million which missing the economist estimate for a stockpile draw of 0.85 million barrels. Besides that, trade tension between U.S and China also worsening the sentiment and supply-demand expectation which roiled the global market. On the other hand, gold price extend its gain for a sixth-straight day and rose 0.13% to $1328.69 a troy ounce at the time of writing following increasing bets on U.S rate cut by Federal Reserve and also increasing uncertainty in the global market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17.00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
19.45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
20.30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17.00 | EUR – GDP | 1.2% | 1.2% | – |
| 19.45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | 0.40% | 0.40% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 19.45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 22.00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (May) | 55.9 | 56.2 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 96.95. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 97.40.
Resistance level: 97.40, 97.60
Support level: 96.95, 96.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2695. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2695, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1245. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1210.
Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1210, 1.1170
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 108.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 108.40.
Resistance level: 108.40, 108.80
Support level: 107.85, 107.45
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6960. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6960.
Resistance level: 0.6995, 0.7025
Support level: 0.6960, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6635. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6600.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6670
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6570
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3415. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3450.
Resistance level: 1.3450, 1.3475
Support level: 1.3415, 1.3390
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9925. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 0.9965.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9925, 0.9895
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 51.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests its prices to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 52.80.
Resistance level: 52.80, 54.30
Support level: 51.50, 50.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1331.35. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1322.30.
Resistance level: 1331.35, 1340.75
Support level: 1322.30, 1315.00