12 June 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar remains bottomed on Fed rate easing bets.
Dollar have fell against its peers on Tuesday as market continue to add further bets on Federal Reserve on interest rate cut. According to recent reports, investors have raise their expectation of easing policy following a number of Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, hinted they were open to easing monetary policy last week. Besides that, recent downbeat jobs report which mirrored the weakening labor market in U.S have further confirmed the rate cut expectation. The market is currently waiting for next week’s Fed meeting as a chance to see by how much and for how long it is ready to ease policy. Dollar index fell 0.03% to 96.59 at the time of writing. On the other hand, GBP/USD recovers and gains 0.04% to 1.2720 as of writing following positive UK wage data. According to National Statistics, local wage growth have improved with the reading of 3.1%, better-than-expected reading with the previous forecast of 3.0. At the same time, market also cheered on Brexit optimism which they expected higher chances of Boris Johnson being the next UK PM. Based on a separate report conveying the poll, the British media have stated that the lead runner in the UK PM race, Boris Johnson, may gain a 140-seat majority at the general election if he becomes Tory leader. As market remain on look for fresh directives, investors now focus on political development where politics are now in the spotlight.
As for commodities, crude oil price plummets 1.19% to $52.37 per barrel following EIA reduced oil growth forecast. Despite with growing expectations of ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts, optimism in the black commodity is short-lived. U.S Energy Information Association (EIA) have cut its forecasts for 2019 world oil demand growth and U.S. crude oil production in a monthly report by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.22 million bpd, which have diminishing the oil sentiment. Lastly, gold price regains 0.42% to $1332.33 a troy ounce as of writing amid pressured greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:15 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 6.771M | -0.481M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its retracement towards the support level 96.35.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 95.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2690. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2785.
Resistance level: 1.2785, 1.2865
Support level: 1.2690, 1.2615
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1305. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1360.
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1400
Support level: 1.1305, 1.1240
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 108.45. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 103.15, 109.70
Support level: 108.45, 107.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower after retracing from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6930.
Resistance level: 0.6970, 0.7030
Support level: 0.6930, 0.6860
NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.6580. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6510
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3305. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3305, 1.3380
Support level: 1.3255, 1.3175
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.9905. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking below previous support level at 50.90. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 50.90.
Resistance level: 52.65, 53.85
Support level: 50.90, 49.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was trade higher following prior rebound from the support level 1321.50. MACD which illustrate bias bullish momentum and the starting formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1339.10.
Resistance level: 1339.10, 1347.00
Support level: 1331.15, 1324.35