14 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
US rate cut by end of July?
Greenback extended its gains against other major currencies following higher expectation towards Federal Reserve to initiate an interest rate cut in the near-term. Recent economic releases from the United States portrays a possible slowdown in momentum as labor market and inflation pressure begins to diminish. From yesterday, both Import Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims missed economist expectation, raising higher prospect for a rate cut by the end of July. When referring to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability for a rate cut during July’s meeting has achieved a high level of 89.1%, slightly higher than last week’s reading of only 86.5%. For the time being, investors will pry upon the release of Retail Sales report later tonight in order to attain more market signals. On the other hand, Japanese yen remains supported within the FX market as trade tension in between US and China continues to linger. Prior, US President Donald Trump warned that Washington may impose more tariffs upon China if a trade talk was not initiated during the upcoming G-20 summit in Osaka at the end of this month. As of writing, dollar index was up 0.04% to 96.97 while pair of USD/JPY traded flat at 108.38.
As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates slightly by 0.17% to $52.11 per barrel. Oil prices rose more than 1% on yesterday following reports of two major oil tankers being attacked in the Middle East which could escalate tensions in between Iran and US while reducing oil supply temporarily. Otherwise, gold price extended gains by 0.13% to $1,343.89 a troy ounce due to lingering risks in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
20:55 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | -0.2% | 0.7% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun) | 100.0 | 98.1 | – |
| 01:00
(15th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 789 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 97.05.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50
Support level: 96.35, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1380
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1220
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel formation. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 108.20.
Resistance level: 108.50, 108.70
Support level: 108.20, 107.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6860
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.6555. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 0.6555.
Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6615
Support level: 0.6555, 0.6525
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3315. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3375.
Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3315, 1.3280
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.9915.
Resistance level: 0.9945, 0.9975
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9865
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending triangle formation. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests its price to be traded lower after closing below 51.60.
Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45
Support level: 51.60, 50.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher after closing above the resistance of 1340.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 1355.00.
Resistance level: 1355.00, 1375.00
Support level: 1340.00, 1321.00