26 June 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
RBNZ will cut rate in July?
New Zealand dollar was traded with high volatility following the release of interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). As widely expected, RBNZ maintained their interest rate at a low level of 1.50% this morning. New Zealand dollar received initial bearish reaction after RBNZ quoted that weak global economic outlook and subdued domestic growth risk may require lower interest rates over time to achieve their designated target. However, the currency rebounds from its initial low level after RBNZ noted that New Zealand’s first quarter Gross Domestic Product remains resilient towards global economic uncertainty while exceeding prior projection figures. Likewise, the central bank also expects inflation to rise towards their 2% target while employment market is expected to remain near its maximum potential. All in all, the dovish comments from RBNZ were well in line with expectation. Currently, financial market has already priced in for a 25-basis point rate cut in July which has led to a sudden rebound after initial slump. As of writing, pair of NZD/USD rose 0.24% to 0.6654.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.20% to $58.67 per barrel. Oil price rose this morning after American Petroleum Institute reported that last week’s US crude inventories fell by -7.550 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.78% to $1,412.28 a troy ounce due to higher demand for risky assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:15 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
17:15 GBP Inflation Report Hearings
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -3.106M | -2.540M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 95.65. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 96.05.
Resistance level: 96.05, 96.45
Support level: 95.65, 95.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2680. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the recent formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2750, 1.2810
Support level: 1.2680, 1.2610
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1395. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1335.
Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1335, 1.1280
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 107.05. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 107.60
Resistance level: 107.60, 108.15
Support level: 107.05, 106.50
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 0.6965. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 0.6930.
Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6930, 0.6900
NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6640. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term as a technical correction back towards the support level 0.6640.
Resistance level: 0.6680, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6640, 0.6600
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded flat in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 1.3230.
Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3290
Support level: 1.3160, 1.3080
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9750. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9800.
Resistance level: 0.9800, 0.9855
Support level: 0.9750, 0.9700
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 57.95. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 59.60.
Resistance level: 59.60, 61.05
Support level: 57.95, 55.75
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1406.50. MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95
Support level: 1406.50, 1386.35