28 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Market consolidates, all eyes on trade talks.
The FX market was traded flat ahead of this week G20 summit at Osaka, Japan where leaders from all around the world meets to discuss global economy issues. One of the major highlights is the resumption of trade negotiations between US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping where market participants remains doubtful of the outcome. According to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, trade deal was almost 90% completed and the trade talks is expected to make good progress. However, according to President Trump, he is expecting a better deal from China especially in regards to IP protection as well as opening China market for US investors. Trump threatened for substantial additional 10% – 25% tariffs on $300 billion Chinese goods if a deal cannot be met. As the trade war affects economies on a global scale, the mixed signals had cause investors to be cautious as they enter safe-haven assets while waiting for the results in trade talks. In terms of economic data, yesterday release of US GDP and Pending Home Sales provided little impact on to the market with both data meeting economists’ expectation at 3.1% and 1.1% respectively. As of writing, dollar index inched lower by 0.01% to 95.67 while pair of USD/JPY was lower by 0.07% to 107.70.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.30% to $59.43 per barrel. Recent sentiment for oil market remained bullish supported by a drop in crude inventories reported by both API and EIA. Oil traders will now focus on the outcome of trade talks as further escalating tensions will negatively affect the demand for oil. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.57% to $1,417.70 a troy ounce following market uncertainties which boosted the demand for safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR -CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 1.2% | 1.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Apr) | 0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun) | 97.9 | 98.0 | – |
| 01:00 (29th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 789 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 95.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest dollar to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 95.85.
Resistance level: 95.85, 96.15
Support level: 95.45, 95.10
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the 20-MA line (Red). MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 20 moving average line.
Resistance level: 1.2710, 1.2750
Support level: 1.2655, 1.2610
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1355. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1395.
Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1435
Support level: 1.1355, 1.1320
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the 20 Moving average line (Red). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 Moving average line.
Resistance level: 107.85, 108.20
Support level: 107.45, 106.80
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7025.
Resistance level: 0.7025, 0.7055
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6705. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a retracement from or breakout above the resistance level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6740
Support level: 0.6665, 0.6635
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3095. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a rebound from or breakout below the support level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3130, 1.3165
Support level: 1.3095, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9755. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9855
Support level: 0.9755, 0.9705
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 59.70. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 58.25.
Resistance level: 59.70, 60.50
Support level: 58.25, 57.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1415.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to be traded higher after successfully close its candle above the resistance level at 1415.00
Resistance level: 1415.00, 1440.00
Support level: 1402.00, 1383.50