11 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar falls after Powell’s dovish statement, safe-haven gains.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs fell 0.10% to 96.56 following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on trade uncertainties and concerns of slow global economic growth which continues to pressure the dollar market. During the Fed’s congressional testimony, Powell emphasized that with ongoing trade uncertainties, business investment had since slowed down notably in recent months and warned about risk of weak inflation being more persistent than expected. Although expectations of a 50-basis point rate cut were lowered, Powell’s statement did not remove the possibility for a 25-basis point cut during its monetary policy meeting this month, encouraging investors to sell dollar and enter into safe-haven assets. Throughout this year, the Fed had since changed their stance from a ‘wait and see’ approach to its readiness to ‘act as appropriate’, providing sustainment for US economic growth. In other news, pair of GBP/USD inched higher by 0.06% to 1.2505 as of writing. The pound was initially being pressured by its downbeat data, with Manufacturing Production slumping to 1.4%, missing its forecast of 2.2%, while GDP met with economist’s expectation to grow the 0.3%. However, the pound received high demand after Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell left the market with a dovish stance and signals of rate cut this month.
In the commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.45% to $60.50 per barrel as of writing following another fall in its stockpiles. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories fell 9.5M barrels, exceeding economist’s expectation to fall 3.1M. Falling inventories in the US had lowered concerns of oversupply in the market while pushing oil prices higher. Besides that, a weaker dollar also helped increasing the appeal of crude oil. Next, gold price skyrocketed yesterday, increasing by 0.38% to $1424.05 a troy ounce following dovish Fed which caused investors to flee the dollar market and enter into safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
22:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (Mom) (Jun) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 221K | 220K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.95. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 96.35.
Resistance level: 96.95, 97.55
Support level: 96.35, 95.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2510. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2510, 1.2595
Support level: 1.2440, 1.2390
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1235. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1335
Support level: 1.1235, 1.1185
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 108.15. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.15, 107.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6965. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6930, 0.6900
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6650. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6650, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6550
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3105. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3040.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3040, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9870. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9935, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9870, 0.9800
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 59.60. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 61.05
Resistance level: 61.05, 62.90
Support level: 59.60, 57.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1437.95.
Resistance level: 1437.95, 1457.10
Support level: 1421.40, 1403.15