15 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remained pressured despite positive inflation data.
Index dollar measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs inched lower by 0.01% to 96.37 during early Asian trading session despite a positive reading in US Producer Price Index. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US PPI came in at 0.1%, hitting economist expectation while its Core PPI rose to 0.3% from 0.2%. However, despite bullish inflation data as seen in US Core CPI and PPI, Federal Reserve (Fed) is still widely expected to cut rate by 25 basis point during their policy meeting at the end of this month. Market sentiment remained cloudy while dollar still lingers above its 96 level as investors await further monetary policy actions from the Fed to gauge the dollar market. In other news, pair of GBP/USD fell by 0.05% to 1.2565 as of writing after successfully rebounding back from its lower levels last Friday. The pound received higher demand on Friday following weaker dollar which increase the appeal of riskier assets. Furthermore, recent reports showed that leading candidate Boris Johnson would aim for a US Trade Deal as his first move as the Prime Minister. Although Johnson is determined to deliver Brexit by 31st October, many fears that Johnson would force a no-deal Brexit which would further dampen the economic slowdown in UK if no deal was prepared by then.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell lower by 0.38% to $60.10 per barrel. Investors are now eyeing on China’s GDP and Industrial Production data to further gauge the oil market. As China is one of the world’s largest crude importer, a downbeat data would prove slower business and economic activity thus leading to lower demand for crude oil. Next, gold price falls lower by 0.15% to $1412.75 a troy ounce as investors heightened risk appetite caused them to enter into riskier assets such as pound and euro.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14.30 | CHF – PPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 06:45 (16th) | NZD – CPI (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.1% | 0.6% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 96.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 96.95, 97.55
Support level: 96.35, 95.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.2510. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction back towards the support level 1.2510.
Resistance level: 1.2595, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2510, 1.2440
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1280. Due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggest to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level 1.1280 or below the support level 1.1235 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1335
Support level: 1.1235, 1.1185
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 108.15. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 107.60.
Resistance level: 108.15, 109.05
Support level: 107.60, 107.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7000. However, MACD which indicate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term towards back the current support level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7065
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 0.6650. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains in short term towards the resistance level 0.6720.
Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6650, 0.6600
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat near the resistance level 1.3040. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 1.3040.
Resistance level: 1.3040, 1.3105
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2895
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9870. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term back to the current resistance level 0.9870.
Resistance level: 0.9870, 0.9935
Support level: 0.9800, 0.9745
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 61.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 59.60
Resistance level: 61.05, 62.90
Support level: 59.60, 57.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1403.15. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a technical correction towards back to the support level 1403.15.
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95
Support level: 1403.15, 1386.35