16 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar jumped following upbeat Empire State data.
Index dollar rose against a basket of six major currency pairs following the positive release of NY Empire State data. According to the New York Federal Reserve, manufacturing activity in New York have record its biggest increase in more than two years with the manufacturing index reading came in at 4.3, exceed market expectation with the reading of 1.6 and also previous reading of -8.6 in June. The data suggest that the region have starting to expand and bounce back which could help alleviate the economy, therefore provide some support for the greenback. However, market remains cautious as expectation of 25 basis points rate cut by Fed continue to dominate the market sentiment and investors awaiting further data to look for more clues. The dollar edge higher by 0.02% to 96.52 at the time of writing. On the other hand, NZD/USD extend its gains by 0.20% to 0.6726 as of writing following the release of CPI data. According to Statistics New Zealand, consumer price index for second quarter have matched market expectation with the reading of 0.6%. The data have shown that economy in New Zealand remain modest, however the numbers still in line with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) recent forecast, thus also highlight the possibilities of a rate cut in August.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.11% to $59.37 per barrel as of writing as output increase and diminishing demand outlook. According to recent reports, oil producers have start to restoring some of the nearly 74% of output that was shut at U.S. Gulf of Mexico platforms on Hurricane Barry, fear of oversupply remains lingering among investors. At the same time, China data which showed the country’s slowest quarterly economic growth in decades also pointing out for weaker oil consumption by the biggest importer, therefore dragging further the commodity for the second day. Next, gold price inched lower by 0.17% to $1411.53 a troy ounce following the rebound of US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20.00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
01.00(17th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May) | 3.1% | 3.1% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jun) | 23.2K | 18.9K | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (May) | 3.8% | 3.8% | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) | -21.1 | -22.1 | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 04.30(17th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -8.129M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing its MA-line. MACD which display bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains after successfully closing above its MA-line.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 95.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.2555. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2490.
Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2490, 1.2425
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from is top-levels. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1240.
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower-levels. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 108.20.
Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.60, 106.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7040. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to retrace towards the support level 0.7000 as a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7090
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.6720. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower after successfully closing below the support level 0.6720.
Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6880
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6675
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3050. MACD which display bullish bias signal and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3110
Support level: 1.2985, 1.2900
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its low-levels. MACD which display bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9860.
Resistance level: 0.9860, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9805, 0.9750
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 60.20. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 57.95.
Resistance level: 60.20, 61.80
Support level: 57.95, 56.00
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded flat above its 20-MA line (green). Due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1421.40 or below the support level 1405.00 is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1440.00
Support level: 1405.00, 1386.35