18 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenbacks dips on IMF comment and weak housing data.
Index dollar have slipped against a basket of six major currency pairs as International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out on overvalued dollar. According to report, IMF have stated that the dollar exchange rates is 6% to 12% too high, while the euro is undervalued for Germany, but overvalued by 4% for France based on economic fundamentals. The comment have since dragged down investors’ confidence towards the dollar. At the same time, the greenback faced further pressure on housing data where the permits for new construction project have slipped by 1.220M, weaker than market expectation with the reading 1.300M. On the other hand, British pound remain weak and fell to its lowest more than two years following increasing fear of hard Brexit and a possible general election. According to The Times of London, leading candidate Boris Johnson have expressed his proposal on holding a general election as early as next year. However, public opinion polls have suggested that the election may not give any party a clear majority. Besides that, fear of a no deal Brexit remains lingering with Boris Johnson pledged to deliver Brexit in October even if it is without a deal that could cushioned a blow to U.K’s economy. At the time of writing, dollar index fell 0.05% to 96.69 while GBP/USD fell 0.02% to 1.1432.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extend its losses by 0.03% to $56.58 per barrel at the time of writing despite a larger than expected draw on U.S crude stockpiles. According to Energy Information Association, crude oil inventories fell by 3.116 million barrels last week which is more than the market expectation with the decrease of 2.694 million barrels. However, the positive data unable to ignite market confidence as investors are more focused towards other fuel stockpiles numbers released by IEA. Next, gold price rose 0.06% to $1426.99 a troy ounce as of writing following a weaker dollar dragged by negative IMF comment and ongoing expectation of rate cut.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -0.5% | -0.3% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) | 0.3 | 5.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 97.00. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 96.35.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 95.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2425. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2490, 1.2555
Support level: 1.2425, 1.2365
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1240. MACD which display bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1120
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 107.60. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.60, 106.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7000. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7090
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.6720. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6770.
Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6880
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6675
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.3050. MACD which display bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3110.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2985
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9860. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 56.00. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 57.95, 60.20
Support level: 56.00, 54.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1440.00.
Resistance level: 1440.00, 1460.35
Support level: 1421.40, 1405.00