25 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback flats, eyes over Federal Reserve.
US dollar was traded flat against other major currencies while market participants ponder upon the developments with regards to trade war and next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. As of writing, the dollar index ticked down 0.03% to 97.35 during Asian session. On yesterday, US Treasury Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that he and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will be traveling to Shanghai next week for a two-day meeting starting on Tuesday. However, he said that there were “a lot of issues” to be discussed with regards to trade with China. On the other hand, no speech was schedule for any members of the Federal Reserve as next monetary policy inches closer. Due to recent mixed signals with regards to US economy, traders were concerned that the Fed may adopt a more aggressive rate cut in order to support growth and inflation momentum. According to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, market participants are currently anticipating a 100% for a rate cut by 25 basis points next week. However, the limelight will be placed upon Fed’s statement and press conference in order to attain more signals with regards to their economic outlook and policy forward guidance.
On the other hand, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.11% to $55.83 per barrel. According to Energy Information Administration, US crude stockpiles fell by -10.835 million barrels last week, a higher drop when compared to forecast of only -4.011 million barrels. However, oil prices failed to gain bullish momentum from the report after several analyst concluded that the massive draw in oil inventories may be distorted by the production shutdown during Hurricane Barry. As for gold, price of the yellow metal rose 0.02% to $1,425.84 a troy ounce as major central banks around the globe begins to adopt monetary policy easing.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) | 97.4 | 97.1 | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 216K | 220K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded flat while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains after a successful rebound from the trendline.
Resistance level: 97.50, 97.90
Support level: 97.05, 96.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.2500. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.2500, 1.2535
Support level: 1.2450, 1.2400
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat near the resistance of 1.1150. However, both MA line which continues to expand downward suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term.
Resistance level: 1.1150, 1.1200
Support level: 1.1110, 1.1060
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from 108.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term towards the direction of 108.00.
Resistance level: 108.25, 108.50
Support level: 108.00, 107.70
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7040
Support level: 0.6960, 0.6900
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the MA line.
Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6735
Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded flat in between 1.3140 and 1.3125. Due to the lack of signal from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3140, 1.3190
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3090
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper level of descending wedge. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after breaking 0.9835.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 55.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 57.25, 58.85
Support level: 55.70, 55.00
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following a retracement prior to the resistance near 1428.30. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1428.30, 1435.00
Support level: 1423.00, 1415.00