26 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Euro whiplashed post ECB meeting.
Euro was traded with high volatility on yesterday post European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision which provided fairly dovish signals to the financial market. As widely expected by traders, ECB left their interest rate unchanged at 0.00%. In a statement released by the central bank, ECB comments that they would need to maintain a highly accommodative policy for a prolonged period of time and take into action if inflation outlook falls short of its expectation. However, Euro received some bearish pressure after ECB President Mario Draghi commented that the economic outlook is getting “worse and worse” due to ongoing trade war and possibility of a hard Brexit from the UK. He postulates that an economic rebound during the second half of the year is “less likely” but reiterates that the risks for a recession still remains low. Following his statements delivered during the press conference, market participants are currently speculating for an interest rate cut in September and possibility for an extensive bond purchasing program (QE). As of writing, pair of EUR/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.1145. On the other hand, greenback rose 0.06% to 97.46 during Asian trading session. US dollar remains well supported after Core Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims exceed economist expectation with 1.2% and 206K respectively.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.25% to $55.91 per barrel. Oil futures continues to hover within a tight price range due to an array of mixed signals in the market such as global economic slowdown and ongoing supply cuts from OPEC. Similarly, gold price rose 0.11% to $1,415.76 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion from the euro market post ECB meeting.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 3.1% | 1.8% | – |
| 01:00
(27th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 779 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance of 97.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher after closing above 97.50.
Resistance level: 97.50, 97.90
Support level: 97.25, 97.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.2450. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2450.
Resistance level: 1.2500, 1.2535
Support level: 1.2450, 1.2400
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 1.1150. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1150, 1.1200
Support level: 1.1110, 1.1060
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance of 108.70. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after closing above 108.70.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.20
Support level: 108.50, 108.25
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower after breaking the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6960, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6825
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower after breaking the upward trendline. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support of 0.6655.
Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6735
Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.3125. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3190.
Resistance level: 1.3190, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3140, 1.3125
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher after breaking out from the top level of descending wedge. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.9970.
Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0010
Support level: 0.9890, 0.9835
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a tight range of 57.25 and 55.70. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower, towards the direction of 55.70.
Resistance level: 56.40, 57.25
Support level: 55.70, 55.00
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower after breaking out from the bottom level of ascending wedge. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to advance further down, towards the direction of 1402.00.
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1432.00
Support level: 1402.00, 1386.25