30 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar climbs ahead of expected rate cut.
Dollar index continue to rose against its basket of six major currency pairs as market remain anticipating on Fed decision of rate cut later this week. U.S Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver the first rate cut in a decade by at least 25 basis points. In addition, investors are also expecting an additional rate cut in September and more before the end of the year. U.S President Donald Trump continue to criticize the Fed. On his recent tweet on Twitter, he stated that a small rate cut is not sufficient, however he will still remain victorious anyway. As the rate decision draw closer, market remains focused and cautious ahead of the event. On the other hand, pound sterling continued to slide further amid Boris Johnson and his team are stepping up preparations for a no-deal Brexit. With just only three months left, newly appointed UK Prime Minster Boris Johnson have vowed to take UK out of the European Union regardless of the deal. Chancellor Sajid Javid saying he was stepping up Treasury preparations for a no-deal departure and his top aide Michael Gove writing in the Sunday Times that the government was now “working on the assumption” the talks with the EU would fail. The news have provide further confirmation on the risk of no-deal Brexit, therefore diminishing further confidence of investors towards the sterling and causing investors to leave the risky market. At the time of writing, dollar index rose 0.05% to 97.79 while GBP/USD fell 0.06% to 1.2208.
As for commodities, crude oil price bounced 0.25% to $57.09 per barrel as of writing following optimism on US-Sino trade talk. Oil price was firmer as trade talk was back on the table, with both of the largest economic powerhouse get together again for trade negotiation since last month G20. Investors are hoping that both nation could show commitments for “goodwill” gestures and clear the path for future negotiations. At the same time, the tension in the Strait of Hormuz which possibly causing the ongoing supply concerns also provide further reason for investors to bet on the commodity. Next, gold price fell 0.10% to $1425.39 at the time of writing following the ongoing strong greenback which diminished the attractiveness of safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11.00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
11.00 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11.00 | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 20.00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM)(Jul) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence | 121.5 | 125.0 | – |
| 22.00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (Mom) (Jun) | 1.1% | 0.5% | – |
| 04.30 (31th) | CrudeOIL- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -10.96M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following breakout above the previous resistance level 97.55. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to be traded lower in short term as a technical correction towards the support level 97.55.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.50
Support level: 97.55, 97.10
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2155. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2440, 1.2695
Support level: 1.2155, 1.1955
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1120. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1185.
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1235
Support level: 1.1120, 1.1080
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 108.60. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair could experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 108.60.
Resistance level: 109.05, 109.75
Support level: 108.60, 108.15
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6900. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 0.6930.
Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 0.6650. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6650.
Resistance level: 0.6650, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6550
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while testing near the support level 1.3145. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3290
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3095
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9935. MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9895.
Resistance level: 0.9935, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9895, 0.9840
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 56.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 57.85.
Resistance level: 57.85, 59.25
Support level: 56.00, 54.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1437.95.
Resistance level: 1437.95, 1457.10
Support level: 1421.40, 1403.15