31 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remain steady following encouraging data.
Dollar index continue to strengthen against other currencies as positive data on Tuesday encouraging further on greenback buyers. According to the Conference Board, the level of confidence in consumers towards the U.S economy have rose 135.7, higher than economist expectation with the reading of 125.0. At the same time, housing data also providing a further boost for the greenback as pending home sales data hugely improved to 2.8% which exceed market expectation with the reading of only 0.5%. The heartening data have diminishing further expectation of an aggressive Fed rate cut of 50 basis point and also point out that economy in the U.S is not as slowed as market expected, therefore strengthening further its value. On the other hand, sterling continue to plummets further as the concerns on no-deal Brexit further worsen. According to recent reports, Prime Minister have told the Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar that he wants to take the U.K. out of the European Union by Oct. 31 regardless of whether or not there is a deal and reiterated that he will not negotiate with the EU unless they take out the Irish backstop, an insurance policy to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. As the worries grow over the potential impact of a no-deal Brexit on Ireland, investors continue to shy away from the risky market, therefore dragging down further on the pound sterling. Dollar index rose 0.02% to 97.78 while GBP/USD slips 0.06% to 1.2151 at the time of writing.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.12% to $58.30 per barrel as of writing following a sharp decline in Iranian oil exports. According to recent data from Reuters, Iranian oil exports have dropped in July to as low as 100,000 barrels per day due to sanctions and rising tensions with the U.S and U.K. The drop in Iran export could help deepen further the impact of OPEC supply cut pact, therefore leading investors to rush into the commodity market. Next, gold price slips 0.10% to $1429.19 at the time of writing as the strong dollar continue to drag the safe-haven asset to the downside.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02.00(Aug 1st) USD FOMC Statement
02.00(Aug 1st) USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15.55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jul) | -1K | 2K | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 1.3% | 1.1% | – |
| 20.15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) | 102K | 150K | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | 0.1% | – |
| 21.45 | USD – Chicago PMI (Jul) | 49.7 | 51.7 | – |
| 22.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -10.835M | -2.588M | – |
| 02.00 (Aug 1st) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.25% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following breakout above the previous resistance level 97.55. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to be traded lower in short term as a technical correction towards the support level 97.55.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.50
Support level: 97.55, 97.10
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2155. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2440, 1.2695
Support level: 1.2155, 1.1955
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from its high level. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.1120.
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1235
Support level: 1.1120, 1.1080
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 108.60. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 108.15.
Resistance level: 108.60, 109.05
Support level: 108.15, 107.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6865. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6930
Support level: 0.6865, 0.6825
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6600. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6650, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6550
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3145. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3095.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3230
Support level: 1.3095, 1.3020
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9895. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound from the support level 0.9895.
Resistance level: 0.9935, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9895, 0.9840
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 57.85. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 59.25.
Resistance level: 59.25, 61.05
Support level: 57.85, 56.00
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1421.40. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1421.40.
Resistance level: 1437.95, 1457.10
Support level: 1421.40, 1403.15