8 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Trump criticize Fed, again.
Greenback seesawed against other major currencies on Wednesday following extensive criticism of US President Donald Trump against the US Federal Reserve. In a comment posted on Trump’s official twitter account, he emphasizes that the Fed should make bigger rate cuts and halt any quantitative tightening. His comments sparks higher concern over the self-standing Federal Reserve while cultivating higher speculation for more rate cuts in the future. Following Trump’s comment, investors are currently pricing in at 47.9% for a 50-basis points rate cut during September’s Fed policy meeting. Meanwhile, ongoing trade tension in between US and China continues to weigh upon the US dollar as investors pours into safe-haven assets such as Japanese yen and Swiss Franc. Recent trade spat may lead to a long-term dispute in between two world’s largest economy that may jeopardize economic progression globally. With recent sluggishness in US economic data, investors halt from making large trade positions while waiting for further market signals. On the other hand, New Zealand dollar failed to extend its recovery from yesterday’s plunge. Traders continue to put bearish bets upon the currency after Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Governor Adrian Orr suggests that negative interest rates could be a possibility in the event of recessive conditions. As of writing, the dollar index was flat at 97.39 while pair of NZD/USD ticks up 0.01% to 0.6456.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.34% to $52.41 per barrel. On yesterday, oil futures received tremendous selling pressure after Energy Information Administration reported a surprising build in US crude inventories by 2.39 million barrels, confounding forecast for a draw of 2.85 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.30% to $1,496.91 a troy ounce due to technical corrections after rising more than 1% on yesterday while hitting a new high above $1,500 threshold.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 215K | 215K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retrace signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 97.40, 97.80
Support level: 96.95, 96.30
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. Due to the lack of MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2160, 1.2190
Support level: 1.2135, 1.2090
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1265
Support level: 1.1170, 1.1115
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 106.50, 107.25
Support level: 105.60, 104.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a breakout at the trendline occurred.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6675
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower after closing below the support of 0.6485. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 0.6400.
Resistance level: 0.6485, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6400, 0.6260
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3315, 1.3355
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3255
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel formation. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 0.9790.
Resistance level: 0.9790, 0.9820
Support level: 0.9745, 0.9700
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher, towards the direction of 53.00.
Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45
Support level: 51.60, 50.55
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1515.00.
Resistance level: 1515.00, 1535.35
Support level: 1500.00, 1483.50