6 September 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback revived amid unexpected ‘healthy’ data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies rebounds from its one week low level amid easing in trade war and optimistic economic data been released last night. As a good predictor on gauging the Federal Reserve future stance, both ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing data came in at 195K and 56.4 respectively, beating the economist forecast of 148K and 54.0, dragged down the possibility of extending interest rate cut. Both data indicating that US economy is still remain resilient, labor market is still growing at healthy pace as compare to previous month, seemingly US did not affected as bad as market foresee despite recent tariff imposition and global weakness. Besides, the gains of dollar index dragged up more following improvement of trade sentiment between US and China. According to The Guardian, two largest economy bodies have agreed to reopen their trade talk next month as their concern over tariff imposition could push the global economy but not limited to both countries into recession. After a phone call on yesterday, they have decided to hold a senior level of meeting in early October while two countries will continue to hold discussions along the time to prepare for the talks. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.35.
As for commodities, oil price fall 0.25% to $56.30 per barrel despite data showed a sign of large withdraw in crude oil inventories. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil inventories level dropped 4.771M, higher than economist expectation of -2.488M where market believe that the approach of hurricane Dorian was the factor caused the drop in US inventories. Besides, gold price inched down 0.03% to $1518.40 a troy ounce amid upbeat economic data from US region and sign of easing in trade war.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
00:30 (7th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) | 164K | 160K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 3.7% | 3.7% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Aug) | -24.2K | 18.9K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Aug) | 54.2 | 55.2 | – |
| 01:00
(07th) |
CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
|
742 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 98.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 98.40.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish signal suggests the pair to be extend its retracement toward the support level at 1.2290.
Resistance level: 1.2360, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2290, 1.2255
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1030. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.1030.
Resistance level: 1.1070, 1.1115
Support level: 1.1030, 1.0985
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 106.65. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 107.25.
Resistance level: 107.25, 107.75
Support level: 106.65, 106.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6835. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6795.
Resistance level: 0.6835, 0.6870
Support level: 0.6795, 0.6750
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6395. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6330.
Resistance level: 0.6395, 0.6490
Support level: 0.6330, 0.6270
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1.3220. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3275, 1.3335
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9840. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9890.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9945
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 56.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 55.90.
Resistance level: 56.80, 57.85
Support level: 55.90, 54.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1526.90. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1507.10.
Resistance level: 1526.90, 1548.05
Support level: 1507.10, 1490.00