25 September 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback rose, eyes on trade war.
Greenback rose against other major currencies amid positive expectation for the U.S. and China to end an economy conflict that has led to tariffs on hundreds of billions in goods. According to United Nations General Assembly in New York, Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone about reaching agreements with Beijing and other trading partners. “Hopefully we can reach an agreement that will be beneficial for both countries. But as I have made very clear I will not accept a bad deal for the American people,” said Trump. However, investors were still afraid that his speech may trigger China government as those speech was full of sensitive words. In fact, it is also not hard to imagine the speech may irritate China and lead to an escalation of trade war which might cause greenback to be depreciated. On the other hand, Japanese Yen rose as risk sentiment fall, driven by trade war headlines. Speculation surrounds the US President Trump words within the UN Summit, prompting concerns about rising in trade tension. In fact, Safe-haven assets such as Japanese Yen surged, following a fall in US Treasury yields to fresh weekly lows. In fact, the lower than expected reading of US Consumer Confidence Data in September would lead to a pessimistic economic outlook, which may further stimulate the demand for safe-haven assets. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.06 and USD/JPY appreciated by 0.21% to 107.32.
In the commodities market, crude oil rose as Saudis are exporting less crude to the world market, researchers who track shipping said. On the other hand, gold price rallied as Trump struck a combative tone against China which stoked a shift in sentiment toward safe-haven assets. As of writing, crude oil rose 0.18% to $56.92 per barrel and gold price fall 0.19% to $1526.35 per troy ounces.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Aug) | 635K | 660K | – |
| 22:30 | USD – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.058M | -0.249M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the 20 (Red) and 50 (Blue) moving average line. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the both moving average line.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.2515. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1.2325.
Resistance level: 1.2515, 1.2665
Support level: 1.2325, 1.2165
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trend line. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0965.
Resistance level: 1.1150, 1.1300
Support level: 1.0965, 1.0855
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 107.25. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 107.75.
Resistance level: 107.75, 108.25
Support level: 107.25, 106.65
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 0.6795. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6750.
Resistance level: 0.6795, 0.6835
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6295. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6360.
Resistance level: 0.6360, 0.6425
Support level: 0.6295, 0.6255
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded flat within a sideway channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the channel’s bottom level.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3020
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the upward trend line. MACD which illustrate downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9810.
Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9945
Support level: 0.9810, 0.9690
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 56.90. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 56.90.
Resistance level: 58.55, 60.35
Support level: 56.90, 55.90
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1508.20. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1551.90.
Resistance level: 1551.90, 1595.00
Support level: 1508.20, 1485.65