17 October 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback tumbles as rate cut imminent.
US dollar extended its losses on yesterday as rate cut chances from the Federal Reserve rises due to bleak economic data. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.28% to 97.68 against a basket of six major peers. According to Census Bureau, US Core Retail Sales slumped by -0.1% for the month of September, missing economists’ forecast for a rise of 0.2%. The data fell for the first time in seven months which is mainly due to a reduction in spending on building materials and online purchases. Following the data, Fed Rate Monitor Tool shows that the chances for a rate cut during month-end policy meeting rose from 74.8% to 89.8%. At the same time, greenback received additional bearish pressure after Chicago Fed President Charles Evans called for a more “aggressive” approach in order to sustain inflationary pressure and its momentum. On the other hand, pound sterling rose sharply on yesterday following positive outlook upon Brexit progress. According to reports, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the Brexit agreement is being finalized, which reinforces market sentiment for a soft Brexit by its deadline of 31st October. Pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.09% to 1.2822 this morning.
For the commodities market, crude oil price tumbled by 0.15% to $52.90 per barrel. Oil futures were dumped after American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude inventories rose by 10.5 million barrels last week. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.04% to $1,490.48 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback and higher chances for rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Sep) | 1.425M | 1.340M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 12.0 | 7.3 | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 2.927M | 2.878M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.75, 97.95
Support level: 97.60, 97.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3035
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.1105.
Resistance level: 1.1105, 1.1150
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1010
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate negative divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 108.75, 109.30
Support level: 108.45, 108.10
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.6745.
Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6800
Support level: 0.6745, 0.6705
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6285.
Resistance level: 0.6310, 0.6340
Support level: 0.6285, 0.6250
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3190, 1.3145
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.9925.
Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0010
Support level: 0.9925, 0.9865
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior closure below 53.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses, towards the direction of 51.60.
Resistance level: 54.45, 55.55
Support level: 53.00, 51.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1511.00, 1532.40
Support level: 1484.05, 1460.00