21 October 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar lingered amid obscure economic outlook.
Dollar index which measure its value against a basket of six major currencies hovered in a tight range while investors anticipate US Central Bank to initiate another rate cut of 0.25% before the end of year 2019. So far, recent US data such as Retail Sales and Philadelphia Manufacturing Index showed unexpectedly drop in reading as compare to economist forecast, which provides signals toward Fed member to have third rate cut in this year in order to support the economy growth. According to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability of 0.25% rate cut rose to 90.9% compared to last week at 67.3%, hiking in investor’s expectations on rate cut sentiment. However, it is still unclear whether overall Federal Reserve members are tilt dovish or hawkish as recent trade war dispute between US and China eased. US has delayed their new round of tariff against China, while China in return will purchase even more agriculture products from US local farmers. Therefore, Fed will continue eye on more economic data and news from trade war in order to scrutinize their future step on monetary policy. Dollar index inched up 0.07% to 97.00 during Asian trading session.
As for commodities, crude oil price quoted down by 0.06% to $53.75 per barrel as last Friday OPEC Meeting did not provide any hints to slash even more oil production in order to resolve a glut created by faltering oil demand. On the other hand, gold price dropped 0.03% to $1,489.90 a troy ounce as heightening of market risk sentiment.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Sep) | -0.5% | -0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 96.85. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its rebound toward the next resistance level at 97.30.
Resistance level: 97.30, 97.75
Support level: 96.85, 96.50
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which begins to form bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.3035, 1.3170
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1125. MACD which illustrate persistent upward momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1200.
Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1125, 1.0965
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 108.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 108.90.
Resistance level: 108.90, 109.25
Support level: 108.40, 107.80
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6835. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6880.
Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.6920
Support level: 0.6835, 0.6795
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6365. MACD which illustrate persistent upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 0.6420.
Resistance level: 0.6420, 0.6490
Support level: 0.6365, 0.6325
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrate persistent downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3095.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3210
Support level: 1.3095, 1.3020
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.9885.
Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9945
Support level: 0.9810, 0.9760
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 53.55. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum and the formation of death cross suggests its price to be traded lower after successfully breakout below the support level at 53.55.
Resistance level: 54.65, 55.90
Support level: 53.55, 51.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggest its price to extend its losses toward the support level at 1485.60.
Resistance level: 1498.15, 1513.40
Support level: 1485.60, 1474.40