4 November 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback slump over bearish ISM data.
US dollar extended its losses last Friday following mixed signals from the recently released economic data on the region. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.24% to 96.96 against a basket of six major currencies. Last Friday, greenback found some support after Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of October came in at 128,000, significantly higher than forecast of 89,000. On the other hand, unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1% to 3.6% last month, wage growth has slowed down to 0.2% as compared to prior month of 0.4%. Overall, the jobs market remains resilient despite ongoing threats from US-China trade war which may bring significant impact upon economic momentum. However, greenback gave up its initial gains after ISM reported that its manufacturing PMI contracts further to 48.3, missing economists’ forecast of 48.9. The data has notched in its third consecutive month of contraction which some analysts expects it may have “spilled-over” effect towards US services sector. Greenback has been plagued with concerns over slowing economic momentum which may prompt further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve if overall situation turns bleak. Against other major currencies, pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.03% to 1.2930 while USD/JPY rose 0.05% to 108.23.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticked up 0.01% to $56.05 per barrel. Oil futures received higher demand since last Friday after China announced that they have reached a consensus with US with regards to trade agreement last week. Diminishing trade war risks has placed higher optimism among investors in which it may possibly reduces the scenario for global economic slowdown. On the other hand, gold price ticked up 0.01% to $1,514.26 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 41.7 | 41.9 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Oct) | 43.3 | 44.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from 96.95. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.15, 97.35
Support level: 96.95, 96.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.2970. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3035
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat near the support of 1.1145. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1205
Support level: 1.1145, 1.1085
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 108.45, 108.75
Support level: 108.20, 107.65
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which has shown diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6980, 0.7055
Support level: 0.6910, 0.6815
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 0.6425. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in mid-term.
Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6560
Support level: 0.6425, 0.6340
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.3200. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3285
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9800
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its gains after a rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to move further up, towards the direction of 56.70.
Resistance level: 56.70, 57.30
Support level: 55.55, 54.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near the support of 1511.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1523.00, 1532.40
Support level: 1511.00, 1496.00